policies, or practices.
I'S ~7 I
•OREIGN AGRICULTURE r » r Vv
harvesting grain in the
Service U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
FOREIGN AGRICULTURE Vol.
—A Major Soybean
Producer— Ups Area, Output
In this issue:
—A Major Soybean Pro—Ups Area, Output By Joseph Somers
Foreign Commodity Analysis, Oilseeds Foreign Agricultural Service
centives for Soybeans
By James Truran
Report Reveals Extent of 1975 Agricultural Shortfalls By Fletcher Pope, Jr.
oil basis in
1975 were about 9 per-
cent below the 1970 volume.
Brazil’s sharply increased exports of
Had Large Tomato Harvests By Ronald Y. Uyeshiro
achieved mainly by increase in yields
soybeans have moved into traditional
U.S. markets in Europe and Asia.
Both production and exports are ex-
Japan’s Economy To Strong Recovery in ’76
pected to rise year’s crop
This week’s cover:
—up 16 percent from
metric tons of soybeans on 3.3 million
areas in 1975 caused the grain harvest to fall substantially short of goals. Report on Soviet crop shortfalls begins on
In 1970, Brazil harvested 1.5 million
1975 an estimated crop of
9.7 million tons
European Community East European countries.
In 1970, Brazil accounted for only 8 of combined exports (meal
Soviet workers use combines to harvest grain in the USSR’s Kuban. The drought that affected many agricultural
The made in the (EC) and in
greatest inroads have been
was harvested from 14.2
1970’s yield of 17 bushels.
Soybean oil exports during the 1975 (January-September) period were about
Commodity Programs L. Hume, Administrator, Foreign Agricultural Service
U.S. markets in
Europe and Asia.”
shipped most of
In 1976 yields will remain
Kay Owsley Patterson, Editor
necessary In the transaction of public business required by law of this Department. Use of funds for printing Foreign Agriculture has been approved by the is
Budget through June
1979. Yearly subscription domestic, rate: $34.35 $42.95 foreign; single copies 70 cents. Order from Superintendent of Documents, Printing Office, Government Washington, D.C. 20402. Contents of this magazine may be reprinted freely. Use of commercial and trade names does not imply approval or constitute endorsement by USDA or Foreign Agricultural
tor of the
soybean production major competi-
status as the
kets for oilseeds
In comparison, U.S. exports of soy-
exports of soybeans and is
about 850,000 tons
However, U.S. exports of soybeans and oil on a soyin 1970.
(oil basis) esti-
bean exports are projected to increase by 700,000 tons to 4.5 million tons. A
million tons above those of the
previous year. In 1976/77, Brazil’s soy-
even greater, with 1975 exports
a crop-year (April-March) basis,
to the Soviet
part of this increase
1975 soybeans and products may for first time have been the leading Brazilian export, surpassing both sugar and coffee in trade importance.
were only 4 percent above the 1970 volume. at 13.7 million tons
beans and meal (meal basis) in 1975
soybean exports for the 1975/76 year
and meal (meal basis) at 5.8 million tons was nearly eight times the 1970 volume.
But with larger crops, Brazil is becoming a year-round supplier, and in
In calendar 1975, Brazil’s combined
The Secretary of Agriculture has determined that publication of this periodical
Advisory Board: Smith, Chairman; Richard A. Gordon O. Fraser, William Horbaly, Richard M. Kennedy, J. Don Looper, Larry B. Marton, Brice K. Meeker, Jimmy D. Minyard,
each year before September, when the
same, but acreage will jump to
Beverly J. Horsley, G. H. Baker, Marcellus P. Murphy, Isabel A.
volumes were before
United States harvested Editorial Staff:
to both countries, export
soybeans have moved
tary for International Affairs
more than 280,000 tons for the United States. However, for markets common
increased exports of
had increased to 38
and 58, respectively.
per acre, nearly 47 percent greater than
Yields in 1975 averaged 25 bushels
and the United States
countries and 13 percent to East
page 6 (Novosti photo).
exports for the 1975/76 estirpated
compared with only 16,000 tons 1974/75. During April-December
per month as shipments
throughout the season without the
of Government emsome previous years. This increased movement has been effects
bargoes, as in
domestic market, oil
ryover from production in the 1974/75
crop year. In 1976/77, soybean
under earlier arrangements, with the that adequate stocks be maintained for domestic consumption. The new arrangement appears to have prevented market disruptions and domestic shortages of vegetable oil. In February the Government announced that its export policy for soybeans and products would continue unchanged in 1976/77. The Bank of Brazil’s Office of External Trade stipulation
of adequate sup-
by the substantial
1976/77, partly reflecting the anticipameal avail-
tion of reduced cottonseed
1975/76 crop year more than 5
above that of the previous year. A 900,000-ton increase is projected for 1976/77, with crush at 5.9 million tons.
expected to be greater than in 1975/76,
roughly 7 million tons, and
with exports projected at 350,000 tons.
Again, part of this increase will be a
result of a large stock carryover.
tion could increase total oilseed crushing
capacity to about 7.7 million tons.
Soybean meal exports for 1975/76 estimated
with meal exports
of the increase reflected
cast to increase to
1.2 million tons in
million tons of soybeans at
Cr$75 per 60-kilo bag
time the equivalent of $4.32
per bushel) and stock them until prices
gust 1975 received in addition the crush-
lowing sales to the Soviet Union, and
allowed to export as beans up to 10
operatives received the greatest share of
understanding of their positions.
grazing conditions. As a result, soybean meal was used as supplemental feed
exports by each industry, the
also has indicated
intent to aid farmers in maintaining
producer prices. In mid-1975, the Gov-
ers’ rights to
Soybean meal consumption
the July 1975 frost that aggravated dry
until rains revived the pastures.
soybean exports, while
revoking export licenses.
200,000 tons from the previous year’s level. Although cattle in Brazil are normally grass-fed, million
soybean product export, under super-
soybean meal consumption 1975/76 is estimated at a record 1
1975/76 of consultation and plan-
ning with cooperatives, exporters, and
though soybean meal is used for both poultry and swine, the bulk of the meal Brazil’s
control over export sales.
the oilseed products syndicates control
placed at about 3.5 million tons. Al-
The Government assumed
percent of their allocation of beans for
was unnecessary for the Government to purchase beans. However, the supply situation raised
Subsequently, crushers were
questions concerning the adequacy of
Prior to August 1975, crushers were
allowed to export more soybean
UNITED STATES AND BRAZIL: EXPORTS OF SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS Brazil’s exports as share
United States exports
Soybeans: European Community Other Western Europe Eastern Europe Other
Soybean meal: European Community Other Western Europe Eastern Europe Other Total
Soybean oil: Bangladesh People’s Republic of China Iran
Morocco Peru Tunisia
Turkey Other Total 1
193 39 58
Percent 4 3
cent 32 36 62
657 2 193
127 472 366
412 27 56
123 554 490
14 18 9 6
27 36 44 15
40 56 65 24
77 32 33 26 3 510
155 20 56 24
17 10 6 198
O n n n n o n
n n n n n
56 39 19 14 29 30
n O n n n n n o
63 100 47 98 53 58 83 13
n n n n n n n n n
Latest period for which destination data are available, Canada. 4 Not available.
Includes soybean exports to the USSR.
Soybean exports are adjusted
via transshipments through
Brazil’s current storage capacity for
bulk commodities (including sugar) estimated
AND DISTRIBUTION, SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS, MARKETING YEARS BEGINNING APRIL 1, 1973-76
Another 2.5 million tons are to be added this year, and the goal is a total 45 million tons by 1979. Storage
on farms, so that farmers added degree of flexibility
have an marketing
Production 8 percent seed and waste Exports Estimated crush Estimated stock change
Brazil guaranteed markets.
ports of soybeans to the Soviet
and exports of beans and oil to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) during 1975/76. The Soviet Union and
Production 17.7 percent Exports
are not traditional markets for
soybeans and products. In January, a long-term
Apparent domestic disappearance
to include ex-
Meal: Production 79.5 percent Exports
Besides long-term agreements, Brazil
long-term agreements with other countries.
million metric tons)
Apparent domestic disappearance
Estimated stock change
with Japan was proposed, involving exContlnued on page 12
Soybean Yield and Acreage Leap
Largely responsible for the surge in Brazil’s soybean production are greatly increased acreage and yields. Rio Grande do Sul the largest soybean producing State
54 percent of the country’s harvested area and 49 percent of production. Soybeans are double cropped with wheat, which reduces production costs and increases profits. Soybean yields in Rio Grande at 22-23 bushels per acre have not increased as rapidly as in Parana and some other producing states, possibly as a result of the lack of fertilizer in
after prolonged land use in crop production.
the Federation of
would supply lime at 1976. Farmers in Rio Grande would be the main
Government of Brazil a 40 percent discount.
of this lime. Also, the
—65 percent above
the 1970 yield of 17.8 bushels per Rio Grande, beans are double-cropped with wheat, but wheat acreage in Parana is considerably less. Sao Paulo, the third largest soybean producing State, in acre.
1975 accounted for about 7 percent of area and production. The other producing States of Santa Catarina, Minas Gerais, Goais, and Mato Grosso have considerable potential for future expansion in soybean production because not currently of the vast areas especially in Mato Grosso
16 percent gain in production
primarily reflects expanded acreage to 16.5 million acres,
but less favorable growing conditions are expected to hold yields
Some a shift
25 bushels per acre.
of this year’s increase in plantings resulted from
from coffee following
individual area increase
last year’s freeze.
— 19 percent—
In August 1975, the Brazilian Coffee Institute announced program of financial aid to coffee producers to grow such crops as soybeans, peanuts, rice, com, wheat, and sunflowers between the rows of the coffee trees that were damaged by frost. An increase in soybean area was expected in Sao Paulo,
However, any major expansion of production
apparently have since decided to shift
In Rio Grande, the increase in area
percent, but the increase for Santa Catarina,
Mato Grosso combined
forecast at 10
expected to be as
high as 58 percent.
However, despite the combined increase states, the absolute
increase in production will be mainly
two largest producing states. Parana and Rio Grande were hit by wet
a result of increases in the
weather. Flooding has been reported in Parana, but does not appear to be serious. Although there has been some replanting of soybeans in Parana, harvesting nevertheless
was expected weather
This year’s anticipated
Parana, the second largest producing State, in 1975 accounted for 31 percent of soybean area and 36 percent of production. Yields in 1975 averaged 29.4 bushels per acre
ment of adequate
1975 announced that below-market prices, beginning
areas must necessarily await clearing of land and develop-
Rio Grande has caused some planting
delayed to the
latter part of
loans at an 8 percent interest rate.
crushers benefit from a drawback sys-
tem that exempts import duties for machinery destined for production of exports.
Trade Operations Division Foreign Agricultural Service
tax incentives suggest a pro-
encourage production and exprocessed goods over raw-
With the increased world vegetable
—and with United —
second largest exporter of
look at Brazil’s export
gram and how it affects soybean products seems appropriate.
razil’s soybean incentives most often
form of exemptions from
are in the
one or more taxes or favorable credit terms and encourage shipment of proc-
—such soybean —over exports of the
the soybeans within Brazil.
Incentives available. Brazilian
by two important taxes soybeans exports.
and ICM credit schemes also favor soybean oil sales. Beans and meal both receive no tax credits, while the Minister of Finance allows 7 percent IPI and ICM tax credits for oil shipments. These credits may be used to offset any other IPI and ICM tax liabilities the exporting firm has from any type of action whatsoever. If the exporter can not write off his
the 14 percent
The other structure
ized Products (IPI) tax, a value-added
on processing that ranges
IPI-ICM tax on soy-
the credit provided
aspect of the
there were an
IPI tax paid. (Note: Exports of
factured goods, which are subject to the
IPI tax, would automatically receive a
Thus, the export price for soy
as a final
for the purpose of calculating the credit
resort in the case of IPI credits restrictive
cheaper when sold in the export market since the domestic price will include
transferred to suppliers, or
could be reduced by 14 percent with
loss in profits to the exporter.
he effect of the tax credit could be from a 14 percent reduction oil prices. The 7 percent ICM por-
up to 60 percent for some products. Another is the ICM tax, a value-added State sales tax ranging up to 14 percent on domestic sales and 13 percent on products of soybean exports. Sales enjoy varying levels of exemptions from these taxes in both the domestic and
wants to extend the credit incentive to
export markets, plus certain related tax
Soy products benefit from other incentives. For instance, pretax profits earned from the export of soybean oil are exempted from the income tax liability, whereas pretax profits from sales of soybean meal and soybeans are subject to the full corporate tax rate of 30 percent. Soybean oil and soymeal since
have had available a special export financing scheme, authorized under
eign sales to domestic sales of oils
the table shows, the IPI tax
applied on soybean products. Soybeans,
“raw material,” are not subject to the tax, while meal and bulk oil sales as a
have a tax rate of zero.
The value-added is
state sales tax,
domestic market on only.
cidence of this tax varies from state
tion of the credit could be used to off-
normally benefiting from the incentives because the IPI tax rate is “0” or “not
ICM tax on meal exand meal are joint final
set the 5
ports since oil
taxable,” the Ministry of Finance issues
products for a crusher. A crusher could, however, avoid the 5 percent tax on meal exports by selling meal in the
an ordinance creating an IPI tax for the
more expensive than
year, transferred to other estab-
domestic price of meal.
credits with domestic sales, the excess
while meal exports should be, theoreti-
are not subject to the
can be carried over to the following
Effects of export incentives.
purpose of calculating the credit
market absorbs roughly 25 percent of the soybean meal prodomestic
The income tax exemption applies toward export earnings from soybean oil only and thus provides an incentive for firms to increase the ratio of for-
authorized by the Continued on page 12
and region to region. Soybean meal, on the other hand, is exempt from ICM taxes in the domestic market as an incentive for increased usage within
AND ICM TAXES ON DOMESTIC AND EXPORT SALES OF SOY PRODUCTS [In
The incidence of export
cent tax rate
ports are taxed
Beans are subject to the
Export credit ICM) (IPI
a lower rate
which encourages crushing of
Soybeans Soybean meal Soybean oil 1
Report Reveals Extent Of 1975 Agricultural Shortfalls
about equal to the average of the
mated 23 million crop would be the
exceeded only by the
By FLETCHER POPE, JR. Foreign Demand and Competition Division Economic Research Service
feed supplies from the
1976, in livestock herds
— and poultry numbers
he effects of
production, the poor 1975 grain crop
was 28 percent less than the mediocre 1974 harvest and 37 percent below the
record 1973 harvest.
Region, the southern part of the Urals
In view of smaller
record 2 million tons of rice were
harvested in 1975 but data on production
Region, and the western part of Ka-
wheat and corn, were not included
Continued hot, dry weather during the spring and summer caused this drought to intensify and to spread westward over the most important agricul-
did not indicate the
USSR the New
and eastward over much of Lands area in northern Kazakhstan and
procured by the
The 1975 tained
amount of Government.
plan-fulfillment report con-
some crops and reduced
numbers of certain types of but also in the omission of
sugarbeet crop was not pub-
he 1975 cotton crop was
which, according to the
was “12 percent more than the average of the eighth 5-year plan (1966-70).” level
6 percent less than that in 1974 and 8 percent below the record set in 1973.
exceeded by only 3-4 percent 1970 production level (the last
year of the eighth 5-year-plan period), or less than
percent growth per year.
during 1971-75 exceeded that for the
that this increase oc-
During 1975, privately owned cattle numbers decreased by more than 1 million, about equally divided between cows and other cattle. But cattle herds in the socialized sector
and other State
million head larger than
other than cows.
These data would suggest that the
(The 1975 harvest was
herd through the winter, even though
adversely affected by a shortage of
drought in the southeastern part
and only 5 million tons of sunflowerseeds were harvested. Thus, the 1975 sunflowerseed crop was about equal to the poor 1972 crop but
a fourth less than the
harvested in 1974 and only about two-
amount planned for 1975. was the only crop for which a production figure was given in the 1975 report that was not included thirds of the
1974 plan-fulfillment report. The 1975 fiber flax crop of 487,000 tons was almost a fifth larger than the poor 1974 crop. Production of potatoes and vegetables in 1975 showed mixed results. in
are largely on maintenance feed
of cows and would seem to view of the tight
particularly other cattle
Sunflowers were severely affected by the
However, rather than being kept on maintenance rations for the entire winter, many of these cattle perhaps have been
order that they help
part of the winter in
maintain the supply of meat to
consumers during the early part of
numbers on January 1, 1976, were a fifth smaller (14.5 million fewer head) than a year earlier. Decreases during 1975 occurred in both the socialized and private sectors.
Percentagewise, the decrease in the
was only about half of
tons exceeded that of a year earlier by
a tenth, mainly because the 1974 crop was small. The 1975 potato crop, however, was almost equal to the 1971-75 average. Vegetable production was described
counted for only a tenth of the total decrease in hog numbers during 1975.
1975 140 million tons, more than a third or about 75 million tons less than planned and the smallest since the 1965 harvest, which
Soviets reported that the
The 1975 potato crop
the beginning of
1966-70 by 13 percent, or an average of about 2.5 percent growth period
Soviets are attempting to carry the cattle
tons smaller than the
Gross agricultural production in 1975 had a reported value of 90 billion rubles (officially, 1 ruble=$1.30;
million head larger than
ord 8.4 million tons (unginned) gath-
a year earlier, including a half-million
size of the
curred in cattle other than cows.
— about 2 year — and
regions during 1975, that
more cows and
of this drought
not only in the small harvests
production data on only three
of the four major industrial crops.
agriculture are clearly reflected
ready present at the beginning of the
In comparison with recent levels of
totaled only 121 million tons.
amounts of hay, haylage, silage, and straw than were stored in 1974 and poor pasture growth
private sector that
terms the private sector ac-
least in the socialized sector
during the third quarter of 1975, augForeign Agriculture
— menting overall meat supplies for con-
sumption during the
More than 4
latter part of 1975.
million fewer sheep and in Soviet flocks
1976, than a year earlier.
Decreases also occurred in both social-
and privately owned sheep and However, the drop in the private sector was almost double the 1.5-million-head slump in the socialized sector and was almost equal to a tenth of the ized
number of sheep and
goats in the
Soviet plan-fulfillment reports
contain data on poultry numbers.
from the Soviets
under the U.S.-USSR agricultural agreeas with the concentrate-consuming hogs poultry numbers
ment show that
were also reduced during the last half of 1975 at least in the socialized sec-
These data show that the 369 million head of poultry on collective and State farms on January 1, 1976, were tor.
percent fewer than a year earlier.
As with '
in the private
was not as large as
drop in poultry sector probably
Thus an overall decrease in poulnumbers of roughly 5 percent dur-
1975 seems reasonable.
The data on
and procurement of do not clearly rethe impact of the drought (Table products
in the plan-fulfillment report
mainly because these data pertain
whole and the
effects of the
drought on livestock production largely confined to the
second half of
For the whole year, only milk proshowed a decline when compared with that in 1974 and then it duction
However, milk 1975 were down rather sharply. Although collective and State farms had 2 percent more cows, milk production in October/ November 1975 was down 4 percent, compared yields per
with that of a year earlier.
Meat production in 1975 was 600,000 tons, or 4 percent more than in 1974, mainly because of the heavy slaughter of hogs and poultry during the third quarter of 1975.
of this slaughter,
and State farms during July-September 1975 was 16 percent or 616,000 tons more than during the corresponding period in collective
however, production on these farms was 14 percent or 440,000 tons
the previous year, clearly reflecting the
impact of the drought and the heavy
than the increase in production.
The drought amount of the
1975 for egg and wool production, compared with those of 1974. Egg production during the first half of 1975 on which accollective and State farms
counts for over half of total egg output
running 9 percent ahead of earlier, but slumped
production a year
to a 5 percent advantage during July-
during 1975 increased 4 percent.
half of 1976.
meat procurement between 1974 and 1975 was less ing that the increase in
effect of the limited feed
from the 1975 crops on the production of most livestock products supplies
slaughter in the preceding months.
November. Total egg output
Top: Gathering hay on a Soviet collective farm. Above: A herdsman on a Soviet breeding farm heads his crossbred cows across the steppe for summer grazing. Soviet cattle herds at the beginning of 1976 were 2 million head larger than a year earlier.
Soviets continued to give agrirelatively
high priority in the
rubles 9 percent more than in 1974 including 20.3 billion rubles invested
by the State and 10.7
Capital invested by the State in agri-
was 11 percent more than in About 1 ruble out of every 5 invested in Soviet agriculture was spent on land reclamation. The amount of capital invested in land reclamation in 1975 was 15 percent more than in the previous year, and culture
of feed phosphates. Thus, agriculture
USSR: DELIVERIES OF SELECTED
received 84 percent of the 90.2 million
irrigated land totaled 1.3 mil-
tons of mineral fertilizers produced in
put into use.
higher proportion than the 82 percent
550,000 hectares represented irrigation of improved pastures, compared with an increase of more than 500,000 hec-
received in 1974.
tares in 1974.
land were put into use, compared with
tion of plants in
more than 800,000 hectares in 1974. Water for livestock was provided over
9.5 million tons.
The amount of machinery crease.
1975 continued to of
reclaimed land goes out of use each
ment report were generally equal to or greater than the numbers supplied to agriculture during 1974. However, de-
not represent net additions to the total
of milking machines
Beef harvesters Forage harvesters
Soviet agriculture totaled 75.4 million
—4,000 fewer than were
delivered in 1974.
tons in 1975, including 2.2 million tons
good pace during 1975,
but not more rapidly than in 1974.
to agriculture in
(These reclaimed areas, however, do
1975 totaled 438,000
52,000 tons or 13 percent more
than in 1974.
9.5 million hectares in
production of chemicals for the protec-
million hectares of drained
quantitative increase over
1975, a slightly
pared with 13.6 million in 1974.
the other hand, poultry houses completed for only 18 million
in construction of special-
LIVESTOCK NUMBERS ON JANUARY
ized livestock complexes in
swine exceeded those for
housing for 23 million built
house 14 million head ol were built during 1975, com-
Special poultry “factories” were com-
Total livestock: Cattle
Cows Other cattle
Hogs Sheep and goats
Socialized sector: Cattle
Cows Other cattle
Hogs Sheep and goats
106.3 41.5 64.8 70.0 148.5
41.9 67.2 72.3 151.2
81.7 27.0 54.7 56.4 116.4
84.6 27.7 56.9 58.6 119.2
1976 change from 1975 Percent
2 0 3
+ -20 - 3
87.6 28.2 59.4 45.6 117.7
+ 4 + 2 + 4 -22 -
Cows Other cattle
24.5 14.2 10.3 13.7 32.0
Hogs Sheep and goats
than in 1974, and for 27 million ers, 1 million more than in 1974.
dry conditions. The
ing, in spite of the
million hectares were seeded to winter grains and 114 million hectares werei plowed for seeding this year.
The winter about
planned and 2 million
in the fall
more than hectares more
than were seeded
pleted for 9 million layers, 2 million
apparently interfered with seed-
winter wheat area. Thus, fall
of the winter grain area apparently was
2— USSR: PRODUCTION AND PROCUREMENT 1974
OF LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS,
Million metric tons
Meat (carcass weight): Production
90.8 56.3 Billion
+ + — +
poorer than optimum condition
they became dormant last fall because of dry weather. Also, severe cold in February probably damaged the winter grains, particularly in the south-
European USSR, where snow cover was not adequate to
eastern part of
plowed the previous
Thousand metric tons Production
The area plowed
equal to the amount planned, but was about 2 million hectares less than was
expanded, suggesting that the amount of winter rye sown was larger than normal.
protect the plants.
whole processing averaged $62.40 and $80.20 per ton, respectively, down by an average of 6 percent from the 1974
and France Had Large T omato Harvests Portugal, Israel,
Campania, prices averaged $60.92 $99.60 per ton, respectively, 25 percent lower than those of 1974. BeIn
By RONALD Y. UYESHIRO foreign Commodity Analysis, Fruits and Vegetables Foreign Agricultural Service
of high carryover and lower domestic consumption of canned whole tomatoes, the 1975 exportable quantity
roduction of tomatoes for processing during 1975 was greater than n 1974 in Portugal, Israel, and France, Dut lower in Italy and Greece. Portugal’s 1975 crop of processing tomatoes was placed at 770,000 metric tons, up 9 percent from 1974’s. Grower prices for the 1975 crop were held at the 1974 level of the equivalent of $49.10 and $41.60 per on for first- and second-quality toma-
Although the 1975 crop of processtomatoes was larger than in 1974, eutput of tomato paste was estimated ing
1974’s by 2 percent.
supply of tomato paste in
at 179,200 tons,, up by 32 percent. Of this quantity, about 150,000 tons are expected to be exported, ahead of last year’s by 69 percent. Expected carryover from the 1975 season is estimated lit 28,600 tons, a decline of 38 percent ifrom the 1974 level. |
be shipped to
new markets such
USSR, East European African countries. The time
of 170,000 tons increases
Exports of paste
percent above levels of a
estimated at 91,000 tons,
year earlier. About 50 percent of this production is expected to be exported.
cent from those of 1974.
France’s 1975 processing tomato crop
In recent years, Italian export markets have
was estimated at 279,000 tons, up 22 percent from 1974’s. Price received by growers for the 1975 crop was established at about $80.90 per ton, near the 1974 level. Preliminary production 1975 of tomato concentrates (28 percent solids) and other tomato products was placed at 33,000 tons each, up by 18 percent and down by 7 percent from the 1974
undergone a change. The
while the United States, Mideast, and
the developing countries have
Greece, Turkey, Morocco, and Tunisia.
the Italian share of the
market has shrunk. Greece’s 1975 harvested area totaled 20,500 hectares, up from 1974’s by 14 Total at
250.000 tons were unharvested because
products are higher than those of most
of poor marketing prospects. Another
other producers in
100.000 tons were channeled to the
fresh market, leaving a net of 800,000
the Mediterranean French industry is faced with
marketing problems. This situation has slowed exports and maintained imports
from ItalyFrench 1975 pack.
Sizable exports of paste are expected
conversion ratio be-
wider use of bulk hauling
many tomatoes were damaged movement from field to plant as
72, and 35
This lower out-
was attributed mainly
problem, the Gov-
ernment has provided assistance in the form of export subsidies and grants for
tined for third countries except
and the United States is reported at an equivalent of $189.90 per ton for tomato concentrates and about $1 per gallon for tomato juice. These subsidies reportedly are
not sufficient to
from the 1974
The established 1975 price paid to growers by processors was the equiva$41 per ton, the same as
The Government paid
tomato growers about $20.60 per ton for
96 percent of the 1975 fresh tomato tonnage destined for processing was packed as tomato paste, which totaled 1
15.000 tons of finished product
by 10 percent from the 1974
the French industry competitive in the
tons for processing,
emand for tomato
international market has softened
considerably, causing market problems
major exporters. Consequently,
estimated at 109,211 hectares, smaller
1975 production of processing tomatoes was placed at 157,000 tons, up by 91 percent from that of
by 4 percent than that of the previous
carryover stocks of tomato paste from
year. Total fresh production
the 1974 crop were estimated at 40,000
1974. Only 90 percent was harvested
3.35 million tons,
8 percent below
tons at the start of the 1975 season.
because of depressed
About 600,000 tons were un-
1975, largely because of
The volume of paste exports for 100,000 1974 totaled 62,640 tons, near the 1973
Paste exports for 1975 are fore-
disputes between growers and processors
over regulated prices and rainy condi-
tions during this period.
cent heading to the
60,000 tons, with about 75 per-
ranged from the equivalent of $74.65
equivalent $67.60 per ton,
from the year-earlier level. product mix was dominated by tomato juice, canned tomatoes, and paste, at 50,000, 10,000, and 5,000 cent
few Government-owned plants paid the higher grower prices agreed to in July 1975, while most of the industry paid lower prices than in 1974. In Emilia, these lower prices for tomatoes destined for paste and canned
Because of the dim marketing
Government has announced
be limited to
tons of paste. This limitation is
expected to be achieved through a
production area allocation scheme.
\pan’s $478 billion
tional product in
economy (estimated value of
1975) appears to be recovering steadily
JAPAN’S ECONOMY TO
expected to show strong recovery
The country’s balance
second half of 1976.
of trade improved considerably in
1975 as the value of exports held virtually unchanged despite the worldwide recession and the value of imports
declined nearly 7 percent.
Value of agricultural imports from the United States dropped about 10 percent in 1975, with some decline in quantity (feedgrain, soybeans, and cotton) as well as reduced prices (wheat, soybeans, and tobacco). The value of pork imports from the United States increased to more than $100
compared with $11 million in 1974. Based on Japanese customs data, the value of imports from
the United States in 1975, at $11.6 bililon,
value of exports to the United States ($11.1 for the
in 8 years.
However, on a global basis, the f.o.b., compared with
import value of about $57.8
1975 estimated at more than $200 million, largely because of purchases of beans at high prices and subsequent decline in oil and meal prices. However, the livestock industry is showing signs of improvement,
which should add strength
imports of textiles
was expected. Large have caused the industry to request Govemphasis
and the poultry and swine industries are expected some extent from the cutback of 1975, but total meat production probably will be only slightly greater this year than last because the increases in poultry and pork will be largely neutralized by lower beef production. For key commodities, here is the outlook for production and trade in 1976: Cotton: Consumption declined sharply again in 1975 as the 1976,
failed to materialize.
wide agreement brought about a 40 percent cut in cotton yarn production, which helped to reduce yarn stocks to more
1975 were 692,000 metric
compared with nearly 800,000 tons in 1974. The U.S. share was about 207,000 tons (32 percent), down from 303,000 tons (38 percent) in
textile inventory position means that the expand production fairly quickly when consumers expand their purchases. Consumers have increased savings and postponed purchases for nearly 2 years, so demand
178,000 on the san
date a year earlier, but the average size of herds increase
from 9.8 head in 1974 to 11.2 head in 1975. Because of expanded use of butter for reconstituting pu poses, stocks have been depleted and 1976 should see increast imports of butter
possibly 15,000 tons. In 1975, butter
amounted to 3,000 tons. Poultry numbers on February
1975, were 233, 403, 0(
drop of 3.7 percent from tl and 87,659,000 broilers (down 1.5 perce layers
m ports |
of eggs increased dramatically in 1975.
equivalent of about 1.35 million eggs was imported in drie
cover the shortfall in domestic productioi
Imports are expected to have been built
during 1976, since stock
higher levels than in previous year:
Oilseeds and products: Area planted to soybeans in 197 was 7 percent smaller than that planted in 1974, despit higher price supports and continuation of the incentive' payment program. The producer price for 1976 probabl
exceed the equivalent of $20 per bushel, but productio than the 126,000 tons produced in 1975
to recover to
of dairy farms declined
was strong during the first part c oil as meal demand remaine stagnant. However, later in the year demand for oil weakene and interest in meal strengthened so that imports of meal ar
Fruit and vegetable production will continue to expand in
160.000 on February
1975 and resulted
could exceed domestic consumption.
date a year earlier.
likely will total less
expected to result in only slight increases in production of wheat, barley, and soybeans. However rice production again
1.787.000 head, including 910,000 milk cows, as of Februa 1975 an increase of 2 percent over numbers on the san
to limit imports.
United States are expected to increase to about 250,000 tor Dairy and poultry: Dairy cows and heifers on farms totali
demand has not expanded
ernment action Japan’s
and other textile products could expand rapid Cotton imports are forecast to expand in 1976 about percent to 700,000 tons, based on the anticipated recove in the second half of calendar 1976, more than offsetting continued weak demand in the first half. Imports from t for apparel
and frozen form
FARM MARKET OR COMPETITOR
value of exports was about $55.8 billion, total
Imports of soybeans
1976 are forecast
calendar 1975 were estimated below 1974’s level, but imports
3.2 million tons, slightly
to increase to 2.3 million tons.
Rapeseed production in 1975 amounted to 7,300 tons down 20 percent from the 1974 level. Peanut output wa 70,500 tons (unshelled), 22 percent below the 1974 total. production of vegetable
declined 6 percent in 1975 to 990,000 tons. Consumption o edible oil declined about 5 percent, reflecting the genera
consumer spending. Imports of all vegetable oils 1975 were 240,000 tons, a 28 percent increase over th<
Imports of U.S. soybean oil in 1975 were about 11,000 tons while total palm oil imports at 11,000 tons were slightly belov those of 1974. However, imports of palm oil are expected t<
Fruits and vegetables:
1976. Reflecting difficulties with surplu
area planted to mikans declined 2 percent ii 169,000 hectares, continuing the decline begun it 1974. Area in mature trees increased 4 percent to 140,00(
i Page 10
iExcellent weather and below-target results of the thinning rogram (Japan’s version of a citrus marketing order) combined to produce a record crop of 3,639,000 tons. A further ecline in
were down because of the market situation, b'aribbean fruit fly difficulties, and fungicide problems. altinports
summer fruit at
nd other pr
1975, rising as high as the equivalent of $1.50
times because of imports turned back at the ports
lovernmental juice marketing company) began marketing a
liikan-valencia juice blend in
Besides being the largest supplier of Japan’s citrus imports,
United States also
Japan’s leading supplier of raisins
from the United
17,191 tons imported
States in 1975), sweet
tons), fresh grapes (1,292 tons),
fresh strawberries (318 tons), orange juice (595 kilo-
iwjjms), Itilters), not'
January 1976, after nearly 3
grape juice (445
id fresh papaya (1,460 tons).
from the United
juice (466 kiloliters),
Imports of fresh deciduous
States are prohibited
by plant quaran-
major cause of the decline 1975 imports of fresh and frozen vegetables. Imports of spill any vegetables (e.g., carrots, potatoes, sweet potatoes, matoes, cabbage, broccoli, and cauliflower) are prohibited I)]
y plant quarantine regulations.
Foodgraim: Rice area 0
1975 increased only
jjiaddy), 7 percent
production of 16.4 million tons
more than The 5-year
called for in the
580,000 .government plan. rice diversion program ended Jlith the 1975 crop. However, the 1976 budget includes a ogram to encourage other crops on paddy land, Rice stocks are expected to expand sharply in 1975/76 to J)out 2,180,000 tons (milled) on October 31, compared with j
million tons of barley,
U.S. share declined further to 57 percent from 65 percent in
1974. Imports from South Africa and
equivalent of about $170 per ton to $144 in July,
became apparent crop.
that the United States
USSR made sizable purchases, the price November was $154 per ton. Ocean freight
$10-$ 15 per ton range most of the year
mixed feed prices were reduced by about $27 per ton on April 1 and $17 per ton on July 1. However, as world grain prices moved up, feed prices were increased by the equivalent of $20 per ton November 1. The average mixed feed price in January was about $243 per ton, compared with $267 in January 1975. On February 1, mixed feed prices were reduced $12 per ton. If the economy shows strong recovery and the livestock Reflecting declining import prices,
confident of future profits, feedgrain imports could
expand substantially in 1976. Livestock and products: 1975 was a turnaround year for the Japanese livestock industry. Declining feed costs and
Weak consumer demand was
of grain sorghum, both sharply below the 1974 levels, and 1.5
moved up and
Fresh oranges and orange juice concentrate imports remain
below the 14 million imported
tons, 9 percent
payments. Production in 1976 is forecast in 1975 are estimated
ports included 7.4 million tons of corn and 3.7 million tons
expected over the next 2-3 years.
over the use of fungicides resulted in a
product prices (especially for beef) im-
proved profitability for livestock producers. Hog inventories, 1,246,000 however, are just beginning to show signs of expansion. Beef cattle numbers are expected to expand slightly. Total red meat production in 1975 was an estimated tons, and is forecast to remain at about the same level in 1976. Beef output is expected to decline about 12 percent and pork to increase about 4.5 percent.
The beef sets
maintain domestic wholesale
The program has main-
prices within an established range.
tained prices near the
pirce, but at great
the Japanese consumer.
The system has separate
ceiling prices for
tons a year earlier. In spite of serve stocks to 2 million tons,
goal of building
Government was not
beef theoretically should be
to cause the price to decline to the ceiling price.
1976 will be reduced sharply. 1975 are estimated at 5.6 million tons, percent greater than in 1974. The U.S. share was 3 million ns or 54 percent, compared with 56 percent in 1974 id 67 percent in 1973. Stocks on December 1 were estimated tons, compared with 930,000 tons a year earlier, iports in 1976 are forecast at 5.7 million tons, with the
Virtually all beef must be imported by designated trading companies that must turn over all purchases to the Livestock Industry Promotion Corporation (LIPC) for auction or sale to designated users. LIPC notifies trading companies by
lport requirements in
compared with 233,000 tons
1974. Yields dropped
from the 78,000 hectares planted 1974 and 1975 because of anticipated increases in incen-
tpected to increase in 1976
has not been the case.
a stop-go basis
has served more to slow the
Quotas have been announced on 10,000 or 20,000 tons at a time to cover price.
specific shipping periods.
tender, specifying cuts, grade, origin, delivery date, quantity,
and price of beef In
share 3.2 million tons or 56 percent.
Feedgrain: Barley production declined to 221,000 tons ^
volume But this
sudden increase. Rice imports have been of glutinous rice ( mochigome ), with >out 16,00 tons coming from the United States in calendar >75. Incentive programs to expand domestic production of is type of rice in 1974 and 1975 have proven successful, and 1,140,000
Jirepared for the
a significant increase
beef will be available, and
over the volume of beef
Less domestically produced
expected to remain
strong, despite prices that are higher than
some types of Based on
those for pork,
U.S. Agricultural Attache,
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
WASHINGTON. D C 20250 POSTAGE AND FEES PAID US DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE AGR lOl
PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE *300 OFFICIAL BUSINESS
Continued from page 4
port of 300,000 tons of Brazilian soy-
cut purchases of U.S. rice drastically
and eliminated tobacco imports from
the United States altogether.
70 percent of the country’s foreign exchange earnings, dropped from $1.50 to 55 cents per pound. Zaire’s
ports of U.S. wheat during 1975, but
would permit further diversificaits sources of soybean supplies. There have been reports that Brazil was negotiating with Poland for a longterm agreement involving soybean meal exports from Brazil. A final decision had not been made. since
more than doubled
wheat worth $16.4 million $6.4 million in
contract with a French firm
however, be the exclusive
ian exports of soybeans, a basic ques-
prices are not expected to
1976, so Zaire
not soon have enough foreign
The long-term outlook
from $416,000 in 1974 to $76,000 last year, and tobacco purchases plunged from $2.7 million to none at all. Zaire was forced to cut back drastically on imports because the price of copper, which accounts for
Despite measures to increase Brazil-
Zaire’s purchases of U.S. rice
exchange on hand to resume normal imports. Purchases of U.S. rice, leaf be tobacco, and wheat should boosted, however, by a recently issued $15 million line of credit from USDA’s Commodity Credit Corpora-
supplier of beans to this plant.
how low can
flour rather than wheat, mostly
of soybeans annually to the plant. Brazil not,
stallation of the mill, Zaire
preference for supplying 300,000 tons
flour mill at Matadi. Prior to the in-
agreement provided for Brazilian stockas
result of the first full year of
operation for Zaire’s
holdings in the plant as well
estimated at more than $500 million.
Zaire bought 90,000 tons of U.S.
—compared with 46,000
the decline in copper prices
not unencouraging. Observers note
stop expanding or shift to other crops?
faced with declin-
from soybeans, probably would reduce planted area but would not abandon soybean production. This is particularly true where soybeans are double-cropped with wheat a tremending
ous advantage that tends to favor soybean production over most other crops.
soybean farming in Brazil is more mechanized than production of other commodities, it is unbecause
view of the investment
bean production—that there would be a total
switch to another crop.
Brazil’s Export Incentives for Brazilian
current market rate
a practice whereby the lendinj
around 20 percent per annum, including the monetary correction factor. There are also spe-
balance of a portion of the loan. Eacl
and 16 percent for other types of export
use of this credit line would have to b examined individually so as to detei mine the exact amount of benefit de
cial credit lines available at
centive can be quite substantial to th
crusher/ exporter. Although
the export market,
on a product-specific
particular loan, the effects of this in
major incentive for production
of meal and
Continued from page 5
Depending on the
Preferential financing the remaining