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Historic,

Do

not

Archive Document

assume content

scientific

knowledge,

reflects current

policies, or practices.

OREIGN AGRICULTURE mm U-S-PK ;Xom 1

i

March

seeding

1,

1976

France

in

The CAP Under Review U.S. Tallow

Markets

Foreign Agricultural

Service U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

— FOREIGN AGRICULTURE No. 9 • March

VOL. XIV

1,

1976

EC Reviews Its Farm Policy, Some Changes Expected -

In this issue:

EC Reviews Its Farm Policy, Some Changes Expected By Omero Sabatini

2

French

3

Farmers,

Government

Committed to EC’s CAP By Harold A. McNitt Poultry Output Recouping From a Disappointing 1975 By Max F. Bowser Brazil’s 1975 Farm Gain Was Below Target New Markets, Uses Sought for U.S. Tallow and Grease By Abner E. Deatherage Morocco’s Early Vegetable Trade Outlook Appears Static By Frank J. Piason

ByOMERO

SABATiNI

Demand and

Foreign

Competition Division

Economic Research Service

Still

7

i

10

13

Spain Expects Larger Crops

14

in

1976, Weather Permitting

Turkey Harvests Large Wheat Crop

15

This week’s cover:

wheat

Seeding

eastern part of the Paris France. France and other members of the European Community are currently engaged in a debate over the cost and effectiveness of EC farm policies, discussed in articles opposite. the Basin,

in

limaxing

C

Butz,

L.

Secretary

of

Agri-

Bell,

Commodity Programs David

Hume, Administrator,

L.

For-

eign Agricultural Service Editorial

Kay Owsley Patterson, Editor MacPherson, Beverly

Patricia O.

November

general insulating agriculture from mar-

Com-

Agricultural

Although

Shanklin.

= $1,206),

to provoke the sweeping changes in EC farm policy once envisioned indeed, called for by many. Rather, the CAP so far seems strengthened by the very gen-

of 3.2 billion u.a. in 1974 and appropri-



necessary in the transaction of public business required by law of this Department. Use of funds for printing Foreign Agriculture has been approved by the is

Director,

Office

of

Management

and

Budget through June 30, 1979. Yearly domestic, subscription rate: $34.35 $42.95 foreign: single copies 70 cents. Order from Superintendent of DocuPrinting Office, ments, Government Washington, D.C. 20402. Contents of this magazine may be reprinted freely. Use of commercial and trade names does not imply approval or constitute endorsement by USDA or Foreign Agricultural

Service.

1975

(1 u.a.

compared with expenditures

ations of 5.2 billion u.a. in 1976. This

type of expenditure accounts for roughly three-fourths of the total

A

EC

budget.

CAP was one of the conditions imposed by West

CAP

Germany

made

of

EC

agricul-

needs to be more attuned to the

marketplace and

less

hard on the

EC

budget.

EC

farm price proposals some changes in EC production patterns and point to potenMeanwhile,

1976/77 aim

setbacks for

ingredients.

at

EC

imports of U.S. feed

Recommended

grain

sup-

complete review of the in return for its

acquiescence

unprecedented mid-year increase in the EC support prices for the 1974/ 75 marketing year. It was agreed that to an

EC Commission

would submit a reon the stocktaking by February 1975 and that there would be a thorough debate on the Commission’s conthe

port

port prices, for instance, could provide

clusions.

more competition for U.S. corn exports to the EC, but less competition from EC

great expectation that the review

the world market.

in

And

pro-

posals for a mixing regulation to step up

use of nonfat dry milk in feeds would

as

soybean meal used

was conducted throughout 1975 EC institutions and farm organizations, as well as by representatives of consumer and industrial interby several

ests.

Like another formal review of the

undertaken

in

1973,

From

beginning,

the

was no would

there

any immediate or basic reforms but there was some apprehension in EC farm circles that the stocktaking could cause a weakening, if result in

of the

CAP,

not the eventual demise, of the

in feeds.

sheet,”

the

1975

CAP.

During the debate, however, the focus of the discussion shifted somewhat from concern over the high cost of the CAP to a search for ways to adjust existing structures.

S

ome farm

interests tried to use the

stocktaking process to broaden the

stocktaking was prompted by widespread

CAP

concern

rising

products not yet covered. Attention was

EC,

ternal obstacles to

over

high

the

— and

CAP. The nonfarm sectors of by the West Germans and have been objecting

the

led

the British,

in particular to the

excessive expenditures needed to finance

production and disposal of commodities in

chronic surplus, such as dairy prod-

ucts

and

There also has been support policies have

soft wheat.

EC

and

to

extend

to

it

some of

the few

need to remove inmarket unity and to

also devoted to the

cost of the

a feeling that

Page 2

units of account (u.a.) for

tural policies, despite admissions that the

assessments

eral

CAP

The Secretary of Agriculture has determined that publication of this periodical

CAP

acted on, they obviously are not going

The review of the CAP, otherwise known as the “stocktaking” or “balance

Advisory Board: Richard A. Smith, Chairman: Gordon 0. Fraser, William Horbaly, Richard M. Kennedy, J. Don Looper, Larry B. Marton, Arthur Mead, Brice K. Meeker, Jimmy D. Minyard, George S.

Expenditures to finance the price supare preliminarily estimated at 4.6 billion

John

Roney.

to the disadvantage of the

and the other reports released during that review must still be this

displace high-protein U.S. products, such

C.



port and marketing policies of the

Horsley, G. H. Baker, Marcellus P. Murphy, Isabel A. Smith,

J.

ket stimuli

consumer.

Policy

(CAP).

wheat

Staff:

Common

munity’s

imbal-

ances, as in the case of beef, while in

or “stocktaking,” of the European

tial

Assistant Secretary for International Affairs and E.

last

market

temporary

aggravated

EC

the

policies,

Ministers of Agriculture

culture

Richard

farm

released their report on the 1975 review,

for

Earl

a year of intensive debate

EC

over

among various Community and different

reduce income disparities regions of the

categories of farmers.

The major the

tained in the

EC

points that

stocktaking

emerged from

discussions

are

con-

document released by the

Ministers of Agriculture in

Novem-

Foreign Agriculture

ber 1975. The Ministers submitted this

need to reconcile the often-conflicting

document to the EC Heads of Government for consideration at their December 1975 meeting. However, because of

interests

a

matters

agricultural

schedule,

tight

were not discussed

at that meeting. Since

Heads of Government have not yet examined the November document forthe

mally, the Ministers’ position should

still

be regarded as a revised assessment of the CAP rather than some sort of new “charter.”

Also,

despite

some involvement by consumer groups and

representatives of

of

EC

However, the tive in areas

sidies,

In

though

started primarily to

Thus, the

sectors.

ing

was placate the nonfarm

the

stocktaking

final decisions

from the stocktaking



back

policies eventually traced

could differ from the

emerg-

or any to

food

aid,

probably

will

agreements with third countries.)

Regarding consumer policy, in

it is

diffi-

any drastic measures

cult to anticipate

favor of the consumer as long as price

supports and import restrictions remain the major

means

farm inconsumers ade-

for sustaining

Ensuring

comes.

the

focus on broadening existing programs

quate supplies at reasonable prices

one of the stated basic aims of the

Concerning the export policy, the Commission’s report on the stocktaking had suggested that the EC should enter into long-term export contracts. These

treaty establishing the

ture

representatives of farm interests

ential

or reassessing priorities.

contracts could

among

action

cases,

discussions

—even

subsidies),

and improvement of productivity.

these

out against existing or proposed prefer-

already rather ac-

storage and consumption (butter) sub-

industry, so far

most of the stocktaking have been held by and

is

States.

such as export policy (par-

export

ticularly

Member

nine

the

EC

become

export

trade aspect, the

part of the fu-

(On another Ministers, in their Nopolicy.

vember statement, indicated of granting

cost

preferences to

but no

treaty.

In

defi-

given in

is

expenditures

1973,

on

food and beverages accounted for an average of almost 26 percent of

consumer expenditures pared with States

third

bacco

on agricultural commodities

countries

the

the

that

CAP,

nition of reasonable prices

is

18

in

United

percent in the

(including expenditures in the

for

to-

the

EC

United States).

Consumer movements within

new

should not be borne by farmers alone;

have not been as vociferous as

it

however, the document did not come

other

parts

total

EC, com-

the

of

the

in

developed

many world.

Continued on page 6

November recom-

mendations of the Ministers of Agriculture.

Their document recognizes the

CAP

an indispensable part of European

as

integration.

the

CAP

It

further points out that

has had positive results in rais-

ing farm income and productivity, stabilizing supplies

and prices for the con-

among EC

sumers, and expanding trade

members without reducing

(or so

it

The

joint

implies

sidies to the

the

that

incomes.

as

will

It

suggests, however, the possi-

of gearing the price policy to

mod-

ern farm holdings and indicates that di-

supplement where price policy alone cannot

rect aid could be used as a in cases

achieve desired aims.

The Ministers consider that an expenceiling would be incompatible

CAP

but rec-

ognize the need for links between agricultural

and budgetary policies and the

need for improved market equilibrium.

To

achieve this equilibrium, a

number

of measures will have to be considered, in

addition to the price policy, in the

following areas: Stock, consumer, and

export policies; food aid; producer participation in

market

risks;

and actions

to

improve productivity. Obviously, development of

some

Agricultural Policy

enduring since

its

greatest

its

(CAP)

period

is

of stress

inception in 1962, but

if

the

pro-

time, especially in view of the

marily on the country’s position as the

EC’s top farm producer, the “breadbasket” of Western Europe. The French Government is backed by an agriculorganized

Government

tural sector that

have their

aware of current policy issues, and has proven itself able to make its needs and objectives known to the Government.

and farmers of France way, little in the EC’s basic

farm policy discussion

plicated

and has

will

of the

change. The surge in

CAP

began with a

the

by a

series of

intensified

wake of

the

economic shocks,

this

past

year

in

CAP’s “stocktaking”

was completed early in 1975. Criticism has been led by West Germany and the United Kingdom, which maintain that current problems call for a major re-examination of the system. The most vocal support for the CAP has come from France, whose agricultural sector has expanded tremendously during the decade and a half of the that

CAP’s

new

grams or modifications of existing ones within each of these broad areas would take

he European Community’s Com-

T mon

review of the policy in 1973, was com-

ditures

with the operation of the

Competition Division

Economic Research Service

direct

the principal instrument to sustain farm

bility

McNITT

A.

Demand and

price

—rather than subfarmers — continue

support policy

HAROLD

Foreign

statement of the Agricul-

Ministers

By

is

claimed) trade with third countries.

tural

French Farmers, Government Still Committed To EC’s CAP

existence.

France has influenced the shaping of the CAP since 1962 and is playing a

port of the

is

CAP,

in its

sup-

is

The 1975 stocktaking outlined the CAPs’ history, evaluated its effectiveness, and suggested some changes. While all the EC members have accepted the goals of the recommendations, there has

been considerably less unanimity on the methods of achieving them. The recommendations, .which are discussed in more detail in the preceding article,

EC’s

stressed

improvement

supply/ demand

of

equilibrium,

the

an

farm productivity, equalization of farmers’ incomes throughout the Community, progress toward a more increase in

leading role in the review of the policy

Common Market, and, perhaps most importantly, reduction of the high

now. France’s

cost of maintaining the

critical role is

based

pri-

unified

CAP. Continued on page 4

March

1,

1976

Page 3

was

It

CAP

the high cost of operating the

present price support with direct income

some

combined with some important economic developments to enliven the current discussions. The worldwide changeover from fixed to fluctuating exchange rates that began with the Smithsonian Agreement late in 1971 played havoc with the CAP’s system of

subsidies

common

Europe’s biggest agricultural producer

that

The energy

supports.

price

of 1973, the global recession, and

crisis

raw material

the steep rise in

CAP

placed the

under heavy

The enlargement of 1973

and

all

strains.

Community

the

in

United Kingdom,

to include the

Denmark,

prices

new

created

Ireland

problems of adjustment. Despite nine

current

the

EC members

ability of a

They

difficulties,

common

agricultural policy.

on the three

also appear united

basic principles of the

conceived:

Common and

nity preference,

all

agree on the desir-

CAP

as originally

Commu-

pricing.

common

financing.

However, major differences have

sur-

among EC members

how

faced

as

to

The

the future.

members’

different

responses to the stocktaking report reflect

these areas of disagreement.

The United Kingdom and West Germany,

for

have

example,

Community

make

to

urged

CAP

the

responsive to consumer interests.

the

more They

claim that the CAP’s price support sys-

as dairy products

such

in

of 53 million in a total area of only

213.000

and

square

trails

miles,

Western

is

it

only the United States in farm

exports.

French agricultural exports in 1975 $8 billion. U.S. farm exports were much larger, totaling $22 billion, but on a per capita basis France surpassed the United States. Over twothirds of French farm exports go to the totaled

EC

countries, with

West Germany

the

largest market.

percent.

The French

agricultural sector’s ex-

growth since the early 1960’s was, without a doubt, enormously stimulated by France’s membership in the EC. It is no wonder, then, that French farm interests strongly oppose any

plosive

major

changes.

well-protected

in the

A

comparison of French exports

the other original

support sys-

price

tem, the law of supply and

demand

cannot function to bring prices down.

Other

have

criticisms

against the

CAP

been

system of surplus

dis-

posal through sale of the commodities

abroad, often

at prices well

paid by consumers

in

the

West Germany has concern

that

it

is

first 3

EC members

shows

below those



West Germany,

Luxem-

Italy,

paying

unduly

an

CAP

the

price

activities.

support

Though

it

and

other

contributes

a third of the CAP’s budget. West Germany receives less than a fifth of its farm price support benefits.

nearly

France,

on

benefits

almost identical

to the

the

amount of

other

its

hand, in

receives

that:

Wheat exports rocketed from an

Corn exports jumped from an

annually, a tenfold expansion; • Barley

creasing

from

611.000 tons

an

to

• Butter shipments increased

• Eggs sales

Ireland

Page 4

from an

rose

from an average

2,600 to 12,400 tons annually, an

the

of

nually, almost a 140 percent gain; and,

any broad-scale

replace

average

an average of 1.9 mil-

average 14,500 tons to 34,500 tons an-

crease of nearly

to

annual

in-

lion tons;

400 percent. French gains are even more

if

The EC CAP has contributed to expanded farm output in the EC, but some

members

feel that the

cost of the

programs

CAP too high.

is

exports to the enlarged

ing the United



are

EC

can be attributed partly to rising ence

in-

striking



includ-

Kingdom, Denmark, and included. The increases

in the

nificant

afflu-

Community; but more

sig-

France’s increasing share of

is

EC farm market. French agricultural growth has been fostered by other factors in addition to EC membership. These include the accelerated growth of real disposable income in Western Europe during most French of the period; a vigorous the

Government achieved ress

exports almost tripled,

France agrees that there is room for improvement in the CAP but opposes any major surgical changes in the system. For example, France would oppose effort

aver-

age 250,000 tons to 2.9 million tons

proportion

payments.

(1962-64) with

nearly a tenfold increase;

high proportion of the cost of maintaining

CAP

to an annual average of 3.5 million tons,



expiessed

also

years of the

annual average of 385,000 metric tons

EC.

modern German

barn.

to

(Bel-

exports to the same area during 1972-74

directed

in a

nine

bourg, and the Netherlands) during the

ecause of the

West Germany; and munching feed

cattle

countries.

gium,

B

in

The CAP assures a commodity market of

about 260 million customers

EC

Clockwise from above; Irrigating corn in

France; picking apples

French farms produced commodities worth about $27 billion in 1975, animal products accounting for 55 percent of total production, and crops for 45

fields

and beef.

critics

Whatever the outcome of these isFrance will certainly have a strong voice. Though France has a population

tem has often created surpluses by encouraging overproduction

as

sues,

these principles should be implemented in

farmers,

to

have suggested.

in

policy;

gains

technological

prog-

assistance

through

agriculture;

favorable

natural

and labor resources; and effective organization of French farmers, processors, and distributors. French preeminence in the EC as a farm producer and exporter, then, is a key reason for France’s strong and often dominant role in Common Agricultural Policy deliberations. Another reason is the French farmer himself, his organizations, and his relationship with the French Government. Although farmers represent only 10





percent

of

France’s

total

population,

they wield substantial political influence.

Foreign Agriculture

farmers, large and small.

all

Farmers’ Organization

member

The Young

an important

is

of the Federation.

All of these

French farmers’ organi-

zations are vigorously committed to the

CAP may the

in

present form, although they

its

way

take exception to the

Common

out in practice.

ried

in

Agricultural Policy

which is

car-

They voice

this

support through conferences with Gov-

ernment officials, through publications, and the news media. In 1975, for example: •

The Chambers

of Agriculture pub-

carefully

documented study CAP in its main

a

lished

defended

that

the

and concluded that current problems are mainly due to nonagricultural factors, such as the EC’s current shortcomings in energy, transportation, social, and regional policies and its delay in establishing an economic and monetary union. The report, “A Balance Sheet of the European Communities and the Common Agricultural Polfeatures

provides

icy,”

many CAP. •

French riposte

the

to

of the current criticisms of the

A

Days” Conference

“European

sponsored by the National Federation of Farmers’ Unions, focused on farmthat

fears

ers’

CAP may

the

weakened or even destroyed. Top assured the

officials

Young Farmers’

Organization; and

In addition to the farmers themselves,

the

France has major farm-input and food-

the National Confederation of Mutuals,

processing industries

whose livelihood

Cooperatives, and Credit Associations.

depends on a healthy farm sector The current coalition Government under

All

Prime Minister Jacques Chirac (himself a former Minister of Agriculture) has

ture.

consistently voiced

farmer and

its

support for the

understanding of farm

its

problems.

four have an

consultative

official

relationship to the Ministry of Agricul-

limits

imposed by an

anti-

The democratically organized Chambers of Agriculture are designed to pre-

and problems Governpermanent National Assembly

sent the farmers’ needs

ment.

A

composed of

the presidents

inflationary fiscal policy, the State pro-

in Paris

vides

to

of 89 local Chambers, one

13

of France’s departments.

substantial

agriculture.

direct

assistance

In 1974, an estimated

farm sector. This does not include farm price support and other payments coming from the EC’s Agricultural Guidance and Guarantee Fund. The French farmer has a direct voice in French agricultural policy and in-

to the



directly in the

—through an standpoint

of

Market’s policy

1976

Unions;

local

Chambers’

by the farmers and

agencies sidies.

the

associations.

1924, the

in

financed

Established

Chambers by taxes

Their chief function

Government with

Unions,

policy,

Chambers of Agriculture; the Na-

1,

fessional

law

are

agricultural

t^ie

from each

the remainder by cooperatives and pro-

of view.

tional Federation of Farmers’

March

officers are elected

network of orgaimportant, from the

effective

Most

nizations.

the

Common

is

Eighty percent of

percent of total public expenditures went

farmers that the

French Government will make no concessions leading to fundamental changes in the CAP. The conference was held just prior to a December meeting of the EC heads of government, which was expected to make some decisions on a

number of proposals formulated through

directly to the highest levels of

Within the

be level

is

by

are public

and

sub-

to provide

the farmer’s point

However, acon agricultural matters was post-

the stocktaking process. tion

poned. •

The

annual

Farmers, held group’s

and

in

meeting

commitment

rules of the

of

Young

June, reaffirmed that to

the

principles

CAP. The

organiza-

tion’s president stressed the

need for a

CAP

in the cur-

strong defense of the

Agreement on Tariffs and Trade negotiations (Tokyo Round). rent General

It is

obvious that French agricultural

interests are strongly

Common

present essentials.

ment,

in its

committed

Agricultural

Policy

to the in

its

The French Govern-

organized dialogue with the

farmers, clearly respects this viewpoint

The National Federation with

800,000

of Farmers’

members,

and can be expected

to

maintain

a

in-

cautious stance toward any far-reach-

cludes most of the local farmers’ unions.

ing changes of structure or emphasis in

It

claims to represent the interests of

the

CAP. Page 5

— EC Farm Review

ting

Criticism of the

EC

farm price policy

was muted somewhat

CAP

helped

from the

in 1974,

when

EC

the

insulate

the

market

world and percentfood prices were the United States and

rest of the

age increases in

lower than in

back on production capacity).

The Ministers of Agriculture

EC

Japan. Nevertheless, opposition to the systematic increase in farm prices has

been mounting, especially

in the surplus

commodities. Consumers are

now

begin-

demand that their interests be taken more fully into account by EC ning to

doubtedly be guided by their position on the stocktaking when they examine the Commission’s price proposals for the 1976/77 marketing year. In fact,

exports.

On EC

there

F

the

British

Consumer Affairs advocated that before making any price recommendations the EC Commission Minister of

should consult with consumer groups

in

same way it does with farm organizations. (The Commission has estimated

a great deal of interaction be-

is

influence

shaping

in

crease in the cost of living.)

The

principle of producer participa-

market risks may prove very difficult to implement. In addition to generally mentioning producer particition

in

while the Ministers’ position influenced the

formulation

one alternative for dealing with imbalances in the dairy sector. However, virtually everybody is relucit

of

Commission’s

the

price proposals.

as

is

price pro-

not a direct part of the

made each year by the

EC

make

Commission

the

to

Council of Ministers, and each

EC

year the

Ministers of Agriculture

Proposals for the 1976/77 marketing

March

meeting

for

sector, the

Commission

has proposed a 5.5 percent hike in

the support price of barley, a 9.5 per-

cent increase in the support price of

concerned with long-term solutions for agriculture generally. However, the Min-

— including products —with

of commodities

and dairy

EC

implication that the fulfill

the

commodity

relationships

the apparent

should strive to

goals in the

immediate future. For grains, the aim price

grains, beef,

is

among

to

the

more

improve various

port level of soft

would

quality

down

through adjustments

in the

be avoided

support sys-

tem. In the dairy sector, the market bal-

ance

must be restored and excessive

buildup of stocks avoided, either through

improved market management and

sales

nonbread

of

price

of

would be

likely

to

generate surpluses,

producer

participation in market risks, and cut-

Page 6

(NFDM) effective

an

with

orientation

September 1976,

mended. Owing

also

price,

recom-

functioning of

the

to

is

mean

a

lowering of the price paid by interven-

One

NFDM

Septem-

after

of the most striking features of

the dairy proposals

recommenda-

the

is

tion for the obligatory incorporation of

NFDM

in

animal

other

rations

than

7-month regulation would dispose of 600,000 tons of NFDM (or more than half the present EC surplus) and displace approximately equivalent amounts of imported soybean meal and other protein feed, most of which comes from the United States. In the beef sector, the price recommendations assume that market prices will be relatively high, and the Commission wants to encourage more pri-

vate storage and less intervention buying.

The

Commission

nutritional value

eralized to

of the various grains.

They would

tem

EC

bring the

EC

price for

often-expressed

their

true

alignment of grains

set the

position

same support

feedgrains (including non-

bread wheat) and

mine

also

grain policy closer to the

should

all

prices

all

would

let

the

relative

proposes

also

be

Effective

feed

January

19,

beef and veal, certain

meat,

and

slaughter

other types of cattle

more than 300 kilograms,

weighing

subject to the

purchase of bone-in frozen

EC

required

until

EC

its

corn pro-

should also improve the com-

petitiveness of

lib-

importer’s

increase in the price of

grains, should stimulate

has

import sys-

its

1976, import licenses ate available for

intervention stocks.

wheat and barley

The

system should encourage some imports of frozen beef for processing.

The Commission

The proposed

It

meat.

extent

beef from

1977/78.)

duction.

for

some

(Full

levels.

support prices of feednot

EC

In a separate action, the

market deter-

relationship to the price of other feed-

less

the support price for nonfat dry milk

The proposed grain more in line with the

corn, with the concurrent change in

production (such as a pricing policy

tain

the

and meet cerother conditions. Replacement of at least 5 years

slaughtering premiums.

price

new measures

the stabilization of

market for

of 117.04 u.a. per metric ton.

the support

promotion, or through the adoption of for

who

some milk from

corn close to that proposed for barley

that the

— must

be higher than in

in fact

raise

Commission’s

as well as shortages

Commission

In the dairy sector, the

proposes subsidies for producers

widening the spread between support and orientation prices and phasing out

wheat and

nonbread wheat

grains. In the beef sector, surpluses

wheat of breadmaking

support

the

types of grain and to gear the price of to that of other feed-

9.9 million in 1973/74.

calf feed. This

n the grain I

scheduled

is

1-2.)

1975/76). These proposed adjustments in feedgrain price ratios would bring

number

1975/76. U.S. exports of corn to the EC were 11.1 million tons in 1974/75 and

ber 1976.

corn, and a 5.8 percent reduction in the

set targets for a

time in

pected to be a small net exporter in

tion agencies for

Ministerial

be-

wheat for the 1974/75 and is also ex-

a net exporter of

mid-December 1975. The Ministers have begun debating them, but no final decision had been announced as of the third week in February 1976. (The next in

support price of soft wheat (but the sup-

have also

first

EC

The

to third country markets.

came

may

the other hand, there

wheat available for export

year were submitted by the Commission

agreement abounds over how much producers should share in market risks. These recommendations are largely

isters

less

the proposed system, this could

the final decisions.

concrete proposals, as dis-

make

tant to

be

agree to withhold

stocktaking process. Price proposals are

pation in risk sharing, the Ministers also suggest

Agricultural

the

Ministers’ position on the stocktaking,

the

that a 10 percent increase in the farm support price causes a 1.9 percent in-

will

tween the Commission and the Ministers; the Commission had considerable

posals as such fall

devel-

that will adversely affect U.S.

authorities.

last

—a

opment

However, the submission of

or instance,

with corn as a feed ingredient

un-

Continued from page 3

price proposals for

measures (such

as

estimates

the

EC

its

related

proposed feed

mixing regulation) would ings to the

that

1976/77 and

result in sav-

of 79.5 million u.a. for

grain, 149.2 million for dairy products,

and 3.5 million for beef and

veal.

Foreign Agriculture

World egg production also will be up in 1976 to a projected record of 294 billion eggs from 288 billion in 1975 but producers have hesitated to

Poultry Output Recouping





From a Disappointing 1975 MAX

By

expand production in the face of reduced consumer demand for eggs. In the EC, for instance, placements of laying chicks during January-September 1975 were down about 3 percent from the same period of 1974, which means

BOWSER

F.

Foreign Commodity Analysis, Dairy, Livestock, and Poultry Foreign Agricultural Service

lower egg production for the

ollowing

a

F poultry meat ing signs of

1975 season,

difficult

producers are exhibit-

renewed optimism, includ-

4 percent jump in world poultry meat output this year. Less buoyant will be the increase in egg ing

prospective

a

output



forecast

to

rise

2

major producing countries of the industry cautiously

back from

last year’s



percent in

its

way

severe cost-price

meat

poultry

much

of

producers

year’s

last

half

first

struggling to get out of the cost-price

them

squeeze

that

gripped

they are

now

seeing results of the ex-

in

1974,

pansion in chick placements that began Consequently, sharp gains are

forecast for broiler and turkey production for the first half of

reduced

tically

1976

—but

gains

of

forcing

and

poultry

The

last

half of

1974 and

first

of

solidation for poultry industries in

much

both the economic recession

estimated for

1975.

The

increases anticipated for production of

and turkey meat are 4 and 6 percent, respectively, to 9.9 million and broiler

1.4 million tons.

Posting the largest gain will be U.S.

meat production,

8-9 percent in

forecast

to

1976, while more

modest advances are seen for Canada

its



stiff

sales

competition

among member

nations.

These the

first

problems

continued

through

sumimproved and

half of 1975, but by last

mer

million

—with

dampening impact on demand for meat and high feed prices. An added complication in the EC was a buildup in poultry meat stocks, which prompted

had

profitability

returned

to

some

quarters

of the industry. At that time, feed prices

were down substantially from those in the fall and winter of 1974/75, while product prices were up. In the United States and Canada, strengthening of these prices was aided by the sharp cutback in pork output last year, plus the 1975 decline in North American poultry meat output estimated down 2 percent to 4.8 million tons in the United States and off percent to 420,000 1 tons in Canada.



1

first

half

Most of the decline will be in Denmark, the Netherlands, West Germany, and the United Kingdom. of 1976.

United States.

Continuing the pro-

duction resurgence that began late year, tion

1975, by contrast, was a time of con-

optimism

rise

supplies,

other livestock.

comparable 1975 period. For the full year, the advance may carry total world poultry meat production to 15.2 million metric tons from tion during the

poultry

feed

slaughtering

distress

exaggerated by unusually low produc-

14.6

will see its

of the world as producers were hit by

Whereas

last fall.

USSR

against the trend, the

production decline following a 13 percent leap in 1975, when drought dras-

as this side

makes

squeeze.

spent

and the European Community. Going

is

last

U.S. poultry meat produc-

total

forecast to rise 375,000 metric

tons in 1976 to 5.2 million. U.S. broiler

output

may

while

a

hit a

record 4 million tons,

near-record

870,000

tons

is

expected for turkey meat. Gains will be especially strong during

first

half 1976,

with turkey meat output rising

15-20

percent over that of the similar 1975 period.

E

gg production is

in the

forecast to rise

1976 to around 64.8 the

United States

fractionally

in

Most

of

billion.

gain will be in early

1976, since

numbers are expected to decline after Easter when large numbers of force-molted birds are removed from layer

flocks.

Canada. Total Canadian poultry meat production is forecast at 447,000 an increase of 27,000 tons in 1976



tons or about 6 percent.

Broiler pro-

duction, the major component,

is

ex-

pected to rise 5 percent from 297,000 tons to 313,000, while turkey production

is

forecast

up 15 percent to about

100,000 tons. Japan.

Encouraged by lower feed Continued on page 16

Above, French poultry products ready to ship, and left, collecting eggs on a Belgian poultry farm. These and other EC members today account for much of the world poultry trade.

Page 7

=

— AGRICULTURAL SITUATION

IN

A KEY

BRAZILS1975 AGRICULTURAL GAIN WAS BELOW TARGET

FARM MARKET OR COMPETITOR

U.S.

and excessive rain in others also curtailed crop production. Grain and feed. One of Brazil’s biggest setbacks last year was in its all-important wheat crop (harvested October-No-

now estimated at only 1.6 million tons or 70 percent under earlier expectations. Responsible for the crop failure

vember),

dverse weather—together with weakening prices for a few key products brought some agricultural disappointments to Brazil in 1975. Total farm output managed an advance, tentatively pegged at 4.5 percent, but this is well under the hoped for 7-8 percent, with a chance of being lowered later to around 3-4 percent. Farmers have responded to 1975 setbacks with expanded 1976 plantings of major food and export crops. These moves have been encouraged by the Government, which is counting on expansion in key import crops like 'wheat, together with gains in export crops like soybeans and corn, to help reduce its large trade deficit. That deficit is estimated at $3.6 billion

A



Encouragement to farmers has been coupled with Brazilian restrictions on nonessential imports, portending reduced trade opportunities in the future for U.S. farm products in Brazil. At the same time, U.S. exporters of soybeans and other products in which Brazil is competitive can expect stiffening competition from Brazil in the world market. Accentuating

when

this

export push are the below-target results

exports were $8.6 billion, against a goal of

$10 billion. Agriculture’s share was down to 57 percent from 60 percent in 1974, for a dollar value of $4.9 billion. Actual export prospects for Brazil in calendar 1976 also are not particularly bright. Coffee export volume will be reduced by a small 1976 crop, although much higher world prices may boost export value to $1.2 billion or more.

be available for export

will

may keep

in

More soybeans

1976, but lower world prices

earnings from surpassing the 1975 level. Earnings

from sugar may plummet

to half those of

reduced exportable supplies.

1975

as a result of

And

pared with 1.85-1.95 million

Uruguay

One

1976 cotton output.

On

the plus side, larger shipments of cocoa, cocoa prod-

and corn will be possible in 1976, with corn perhaps bringing $150 million more in foreign exchange. Brazil’s agricultural imports last year were about $800 million, down from $1.4 billion in 1974, and accounted for about 7 percent of the total import bill. Wheat was by far the largest ucts,

purchase, with 44 percent of the agricultural import

$354

tally,

or

last year.

supply most of the

million.

prior deposit

on imports of nonessential foods.

be a surge

Mato Grosso. These key

cultural producers suffered the “frost of the century”

next year.

1975

Brazil’s

some areas

1976

the

Government

will

prob-

(

h

incentives to boost production of this

rice

crop

is

estimated

6.5

at

mlilion

tons j

(paddy)—

1

percent above

Dry weather

1974’s.

the non-

in

|

down

central States held

irrigated

despite an

the

production advance,

increase in area there and a 10 percent gain in

production of irrigated rice

Rio Grande do

in

Sul.

Considerable improvement over the 1975 level

had a mini

Brazil as

seen for

is

with output likely to reach 8-8.5 million tons.

1.976,

rice crisis

during the second half of 1975,

disappeared from the market and wholesale prices

rice

began

to soar.

officials are

The

Government

has since passed, and

crisis

saying that rice exports are a certainty for 1976.

Production of corn



a rising export crop

may

15 million tons for 1975 and



estimated at

is

hit 18 million in

1976. Corn

up throughout the center-south from Goias to Rio Grande do Sul, with weather generally favorable so far.

B

is

razil’s 1975 corn exports are estimated at 1.2 million tons,

with the

USSR

apparently the principal market. Ship-

ments during 1976 are forecast

at 2-3 million tons.

Sorghum output totaled a modest 483,000 tons in 1975. However, the Government hopes to establish this crop, especially in

marginal corn areas, and as an incentive has raised

1975/76 minimum price

the

minimum

corn price. As a

for

sorghum up

result,



to parity with the

production

is

seen rising to

so important in Brazil that the



country accounts for 20 percent of total world output totaled an estimated 2,271,000 tons in 1974/75. A good first harvest points to a small increase in

The Government tial

also

1975/76 production.

may

be exporting dry black beans



this

year since

it

has substan-

stocks acquired through price support operations.

Oilseeds and products. Continuing

its

unabated growth of

recent years, Brazil’s 1975 soybean crop rose nearly 2.2 million tons

above the 1974

level to a record 9.7 million metric

more than 30 times the 1964 production about 300,000 tons, making Brazil the No. 2 soybean pro-

tons. It thus stood at

of

In addition, July floods in the Northeast cut into cotton,

in Brazil’s

sufficient for a 40-percent

key import item.

agri-

—with

consequent reductions in 1975 sugarcane, wheat, vegetables, and forage crops, plus a prospective halving of coffee output

tobacco, and corn crops while dry weather in

And

reportedly to Central America

Last year’s virulent weather hit hardest in the States of Sao Paulo, Parana, and southern

numerous

ably provide

Canada, Argentina, and

rest.

may

result of the shortfall

600,000 tons in 1976. Production of dry beans

For 1976, Brazil again will be forced to import large quantities of wheat to supplement its small 1975 wheat crop, but other purchases will be hampered by mounting import restrictions. Among the restraints are increased duties and a 360-day

rice,

will

increase in area over 1975.

cotton exports are expected to parallel the sharp decline seen for

i[ i

1

area

lower world prices and

:

pected to supply at least 2.15 million tons of the wheat, com-

wheat production. Seed reserves are

for 1975.

of 1975,

was the July frost in Parana and excessive rainfall during August-September in Rio Grande do Sul. To make up for the shortfall, Brazil has turned to the world market for heavy imports of wheat. These have been forecast to hit 3.8 million metric tons in 1976, up 65 percent from last year’s, with the dollar outlay estimated at $530 million or more, against 975’s $354 million. The United States is ex-

ducer/exporter. Another strong gain, to 11.3 million tons,

is

seen for 1976, which will put this year’s output almost 10 mil-

:C

Page 8

Foreign Agriculture

above production

lion metric tons

1970.

in

tropical-product export, cocoa production

soybean trade also continues to expand rapidly. Total shipments of soybeans and soybean meal during the 1975/76 marketing year (April-March) are estimated at 7.6 Brazil’s

million tons, soybean equivalent, or 78 percent of the total

1975 crop. Last season, 79 percent of the 1974 crop was exported as beans or meal.

Soybean

oil

year for the

exports also are gaining

first

in

importance, and

this

time have not been subject to periodic Gov-

ernment embargoes. Oil shipments in 1975/76 are pegged at 250,000-300,000 tons. Brazil’s 1974/75 peanut crop is estimated at 350,000 tons,

compared with 530,000

tons, in the previous year. This steady

decline reflects a shift of area to other crops, mainly corn and

soybeans. For 1975/76 a harvest of 360,000 tons

is

seen.

237,000 tons

in

expectation for the second year

hipments of

S

shelled peanuts, peanut

are estimated at 55.000, 40,000,

oil,

and meal

and 50,000

in

1975

tons, respec-

tively.

castorbean production

Brazilian

last

early-1975 prices that were only half those received in 1974. Little

change

Castor

oil

is

seen for production

exports

in

in

compared with 156,822 the previous year, with export earnings down even more drastically. Sugar. According to most recent estimates by Brazil’s Sugar and Alcohol Institute (IAA), the 1975/76 sugar production tons,

(from the cane crop harvested fall

in the

second half of 1975)

will

well short of the original target of 7.5 million tons. This

reduction comes as a result of the drought and frost in Sao

Paulo and Parana and heavy rains

IAA

in

Pernambuco.

sources say, however, that 1976/77 sugar prospects so

Last year, Brazil shipped 1.7 million tons of sugar, for export earnings of $1.05 billion



a reduction of 33 percent in

volume and 26 percent in value from 1974’s. Coffee. For many years almost a synonym for Brazil, coffee is now literally giving ground to short-cycle, less risky soybeans. Last year’s severe frost gave impetus to this trend, set-

back Brazil’s 1976 coffee potential by about 65 percent. During 1975, considered an off year for coffee, Brazil produced 23 million bags, and the trees, prior to the July frost, were building up excellent vegetative growth, promising a potential 1976 harvest of 28-29 million bags. The few hours of freezing temperature last July, however, reduced these prospects to around 9-10 million bags, as frost affected about half of all Brazil’s coffee trees. A normal coffee crop of over 25 million bags cannot be expected before 1979 or 1980. Rising prices, on the other hand, will keep Brazil’s export earnings from coffee high, despite reduced volumes. Coffee exports during calendar 1974 totaled 13.3 million bags earning $980 million, while those in January-November 1975 were ting

13.1 million bags valued at

In the meantime, the

$818

million.

Government

is

encouraging new plant-

Brazilian exports of

cotton in

lint

Tobacco. Production of 1975 nearly 15 percent

leaf tobacco, to

to

286,000

including twist, rose

tons,

to

Brazil last year reached about 4.4 million tons, with oranges

accounting for 89 percent of the centrate orange juice totaled

November

total.

Exports of frozen con-

150,846 tons during January-

1975, compared with 80,689

in

sharp gain came as large quantities of

all

of 1974. This

1974 exportr were

until 1975.

To reduce

foreign exchange outlays for deciduous fruits most of which still must be imported the Government is attempting to expand output in the States of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul. Brazil’s imports of apples totaled 169,000 tons, valued at $66.8 million, in January-September 1975, with 162,000 tons supplied by Argentina. Argentina supplied most of the 32,000



tons of pears ($14.2 million) imported during that period.



The

major supplier of pears accounting but ships mainly in for 19 percent of Brazil’s 1974 imports

United States

is

also a



the last half of the season.

Livestock, dairy, and poultry. Brazil’s cattle population

among

the world’s largest

—expanded

steadily during

1975

to

reach 90-100 million head. Beef production also rose slightly, hitting 2. 2-2. 3 million tons last year.

Beef exports during January-November 1975 included 5,314 tons of fresh and frozen beef and 37,000 of processed beef.

Shipments of fresh and frozen beef, lacking export markets, were thus down to less than a third of those in the 1974 period, while processed exports were up.

Among

other livestock, in

pork production

1975, against 725,000

output rose to 480,000 tons

is

at

and another gain around 302,000 tons is forecast for calendar 1976. Brazilian shipments of tobacco in 1975 are estimated at 95.000 tons, compared with 91,415 the year before. Fruits and vegetables. Commercial citrus production in in

jective

from the South can be freed for export. Cocoa. After coffee and sugar, Brazil’s third most important

1975 are estimated

100.000 tons, compared with the unusually low 83,160 tons of 1974 and the 282,867 tons of 1973.

750.000 tons

coffee

results,



ings of coffee in the

North and Northeast. The principal obmake these areas self-sufficient, so that more

The poor

fall



postponed

far are excellent.

a row.

1975 plantings in the South which produces 70 percent of the crop pointing to a reduced 1976 crop of 442,000 tons.

1976.

calendar 1975 are estimated at 100,000

in

plus depressed world prices, discouraged

year plummeted 48

percent from the 1974 level to 280,000 tons in response to

down

estimated

is

1975/76 from 1974/75’s high of 266,600. With the long-term market outlook good for cocoa, Brazil is attempting to expand cocoa production. It hopes to put 300.000 additional hectares (1 hectare = 2.471 acres) into cocoa during the next 10 years while replacing the 150,000 hectares now in cocoa with new higher yielding trees. The eventual goal is a harvest of 700,000 tons of cocoa beans by 1992, which would make Brazil the No. 1 exporter. Shipments of cocoa beans and butter during JanuaryNovember 1975 together earned around $220 million in foreign exchange, compared with $310 million in all of 1974. Cotton. The calendar 1975 cotton crop declined slightly to 510.000 tons, following unfavorable weather in central and southern Brazil and a northeastern harvest that was below to

in

is

estimated

at

1974, and poultry

(live

weight) from 434,000.

U S.

Agricultural Attache, Brasilia

— Based on dispatch from

R. L.

Beukenkamp,

Page 9 March

1,

1976

2a

New Markets, Uses Sought

ously used for tallow and grease were frequently mixed with the greater vol-

ume

For U.S. Tallow and Grease ABNER

By

DEATHERAGE

E.

Foreign Market Development, Livestock and Livestock Products Foreign Agricultural Service

U

tallow and

.s.

grease



usually the

world trade and top U.S. livestock product ex-



port is

expensive fat or

least

is

in

A

trouble.

oil in

principal reason

a sharp falloff in exports, which for

the past decade have fluctuated around

45 percent of annual U.S. production. However, a number of opportunities for increased exports

are in sight, in-

some promising new uses

cluding

for

tallow in detergents and animal feed.

1975, U.S. tallow and grease ex-

In

ports totaled 2 billion pounds, valued at

exports

Finally,

long-standing major U.S. export mar-

which is chemically more and grease than are other important fats and oils, has now become a permanent significant source of competition in tallow and grease markets. Coconut oil long a limited but significant competitor of tallow and also expected to be more grease is

Palm

kets.

oil,





competitive in 1976.

40-43 percent of the estimated 4.75-5,20

the

States

that

in the

United

This compares with

year.

1974 of 2.7

record exports in



billion

pounds 43-46 percent of estimated production— worth $540 million. In 1973. exports totaled 2.3 billion pounds about 44 percent of estimated production and were worth $310 million.





A

In spite of the falloff in U.S. tallow

number of

factors contributed to

the relatively poor export performance

in

1974

—from

5. 7-6. 2

also

moved

lower.

This was a direct result of the sharp decline

U.S. exports, coupled with a

in

ut the

way

some changes

Of

A

decline in grain prices

to

Increased feeding

continue

as

long

relationships

price

Higher

feeding

many

foreign countries, particularly

adjustment of these prices makes the

produced

drop even greater.

One of the most now confronting the

import

regulations

in

some

principal

foreign markets.

Import

tariffs,

quotas,

change allocations,

foreign

ex-

and other restricand grease

tions also limited U.S. tallow

exports to

many

countries. In Indonesia

nterestingly, the 1918 average ChiI

cago wholesale price for inedible

tal-

was 17 cents per 1916-20 average was 13.

cause,

Tallow and grease production costs, have continued to increase.

however,

combined

This, price

declines,

with

product

recent

has resulted

price squeeze lor tallow

in

a cost-

and grease.

Renderers’ costs jumped

sharply

tect local vegetable oil producers. India

substantial

almost

costs. Plant operation

restricted

foreign

ex-

during 1975. Additionally, an uptrend in

West European tallow and grease outand an apparent bulge in Japan’s

put,

1975

grease

output

limited

their

de-

pendence on foreign products. Australia increased

its

share of Japan’s tallow im-

ports in 1975, mainly at U.S. expense.

Page 10

in



by new

portion

of

this

industry’s

changes required

and water pollution regulations also pushed costs up, as did the reduced supply of “butcher shop” fat air

trimmings This a result

in

1975.

trimming supply squeeze was of sharply curtailed grain and

fat

protein concentrate feeding of livestock

during 1974/75. Also, trimmings previ-

in

is

expected favorable.

1976

could

is

in

—up perhaps 5-10

4. 7-5. 2 billion

pounds

1975. pressing questions

U.S. rendering

in-

whether these livestock-feed

more

price ratios continue to encourage

pound and

1974 and 1975 owing to the quantum price rise for fuels and other energy

totally

dustry

grain

and the Philippines, for instance, 40 and 30 percent duties, respectively, on tallow imports are designed mainly to pro-

change spending for tallow and grease

percent from the

low, in absolute terms, the

recent

in

livestock-feed

remain

low and grease output

in



its

a significant increase in U.S. tal-

14.2 cents in 1975.

Western Europe, Japan, Korea, and long-standing major export markets for U.S. tallow and grease. A second factor was the increasing impact of classification and certification changes in

as

rates

One was economic downturns

India

now under-

months has triggered a strong return to more grain feeding of livestock, especially of cattle, which provide the largest component of tallow and grease pro-

1975.

in

its

efforts.

in

course, inflation

are

that should assist the industry in

mean

in

re-

lems are not likely to be solved quickly

and 18.4 cents ord

— —has

problems. Although these current prob-

duction.

1974 (the alltime recabsolute terms) to an average

impor-

rendering industry

a long history of finding solutions to

modest reduction in domestic consumption. Fancy, bleachable tallow, wholesale at Chicago, for instance, fell from an average 15 cents per pound in 1973 in

relatively small but

U.S.

tant

cyclers of most animal byproducts

billion

to an estimated 4. 7-5.

pounds— prices

billion

1975

in

record

estimated

pounds

B

or easily,

and grease production

pounds produced

centrate feeding.

similar to tallow

million. This

billion

increased

oils

dramatically during 1975, particularly to

was the lowest volume since 1963 and represented only

$332

competitively

of

palm and coconut

priced

of lean, nonfed beef to make ground beef and other manufactured meats. The greater volume of lean beef resulted from the record cow and nonfed steer and heifer slaughter in 1975. The tight supply of fat trimmings brought keen price competition for them and for other fat raw materials. And, adding further to costs, the 1975 supply of fat trimmings yielded significantly less tallow and grease per pound since moisture content was high, owing to the reduced grain and protein con-

feeding of livestock. This

modern

is

be-

and grease raw materials have strictly been byproducts and their production has had little or no relation to product price. In any case, substantial domestic sales effort for tallow and grease will need to continue, and some cost-cutting production techniques will likely be employed by renderers. At least three factors, however, indicate that the industry’s main need in the next few years will be to recoup much of the 1975 export losses. These are: The outlook for increased 1976 U.S. tallow and grease production, expectations of only modest recovery in domestic demand, and new competition for this demand from the sharply increasing U.S. imports of palm oil and in

times,

tallow

Foreign Agriculture

perhaps a few other vegetable oils cur-

abundant world supply. reasonable goal in 1976 would be

U.S.

EXPORTS OF INEDIBLE AND EDIBLE TALLOW AND GREASE

rently in

A to

more of

regain half or

the 700-mil-

lion-pound ($208 million)

export loss

Average Countries

1967-71

1971

Europe: Netherlands

Mil.

Mil.

occurred between 1974 and 1975. Roughly the same situation exists for animal protein meals like meat and bone meal, feather meal, blood meal other major products of the rendering Currently,

are

these

Italy

West Germany France Belgium

from 129,000 tons worth $22 million in 1973 to 78,000 tons worth $15 million in 1974 and to 44,000 tons worth $6.5 million in

fell

1950’s



rising

T

loss

major sales outlet

early

— tallow

of

1950’s in

698.5

490.4

— — — — — — — —

400.1

372.4 179.4 87.0 83.0 44.5

468.8 195.6 37.0 58.4 39.3

363.8 213.2 108.2

160.0 168.0

57.1

112.5 54.3

6.9

39.9

India

Pakistan China (Taiwan)

China (PRC) Iran

Iraq

Turkey

Lebanon Total

.

.

At the same time,

Ghana Nigeria

Other

Western Hemisphere:

have been directed

at finding

new markets and

cally

Brazil

Colombia Ecuador Venezuela Other

geographi-

33.5

45.0

45.7

68.1

9.9

3.4

4.9

50.5



12.9

11.6 61.4

13.0



33.0 11.0

63.8

68.5

1,178.0

947.9

919.6

1,001.0

632.4

125.6

144.7 25.8 53.8

142.4 32.8 41.9

214.8

231.9

39.7 10.6

16.0 45.4

36.5 2.7

10.2

59.1

8.3

52.0

55.0

6.8

8.4

4.9

26.6 45.9 46.2

413.9

58.9

68.1

58.8

15.0 69.3

385.1

342.7

287.6

418.6

21.3 39.5 70.4

20.9 10.9 47.2

13.8 57.8 54.9

26.1

16.8

108.3 137.2

68.1

80.7 25.7

53.6 5.5 18.7 125.9

66.9 31.6 34.3

160.3

67.5 43.8 29.6 166.0

9'.0

223.1

73.3 18.3 27.7 197.8

330.5

482.8

396.1

330.2

564.7

482.8

2,253.6

2,616.0

2,368.2

2,319.2

2,685.2

2,019.5

Mil. dol.

Mil.

5

Total

22.1

building older, Total world

but small, markets into major outlets.

These

46.1

23.4 18.2 49.0

— — — — — — —

Mexico



48.2 15.4 69.6

260.5

Total



5.3

— — — — — —

Canada

efforts



1,068.9

Algeria

U.S. soap

share of older, major ex-

161.7 336.4 91.0 25.8

Other

In recent months, the U.S. rendering

its



771.3

dealing with the current difficulties.

port markets.



681.4

production. At present, the export mar-

to recover

7.3 31.7

669.4

its

industry has initiated strenuous efforts

65.2 39.9

593.5

Africa:

ket again appears to offer a solution for

119.8 69.4 37.0 31.8

Total

Japan Korea

3

lb.

71.4 51.5

Asia/ Mideast:

was one of the U.S.

the

in

70.7

Mil.

84.9 138.5

industry’s principal solutions to the

rapid

8.8 99.4

lb.

186.8 107.8



Egypt South Africa rise

22.3 78.1

Mil.

83.2 62.7

by the mid-1960’s. Exports have remained near this level ever since,

he export

97.6 41.9

lb.

254.5 62.7 83.3 87.9 35.9 2.8

in the

1975.

61.5 43.1

Mil.

123.2 50.3

cent level

in

148.5 47.6

1975

2.9

from a fourth of

some

lb.

195.4 61.6

2

1974

180.0 54.7

U.S. production in 1950 to the 45 per-

although they were off

Mil.

lb.

1973

4.7

U.S. tallow and grease exports took

early

1972

139.5 63.2

1975.

on substantially more importance

lb

Ireland

Spain Other Europe 4

largely

marketed domestically. Stepped-up export promotion could sharply raise their export level, which

— — — — — —

United Kingdom

that

industry.

1

efforts include greater technical

.

Total world value

.

.

dol.

Mil.

dol.

188.4

232.7

172.4

.

Mil.

dol.

313.5

Mil.

dol. Mil.

540.0

dol.

331.8

servicing of customers regarding prod1

uct characteristics, quality control,

reducing handling losses.

developments

commercial

more

use

is

into

rapidly,

and

category

research

being stepped up. Also fa-

vorable development regarding cation, certification,

and import

some countries

classifi-

restric-

tions

in

tively

sought for both the near- and mid-

are

new export markets,

moting the use of tallow and grease soap,

at

industrial

uses,

in

and

toward increasing use in animal feeds in regions such as the Mideast and Africa, which are adding new emphasis to building livestock and poultry industries.

One promotion

includes a relatively re-

cent marketing effort by the National

March

1,

3

Estimated.

4

Includes

1976

USSR

(imported only

in

1975, at 88 million

pounds) and East Europe. 5 Mostly Central America and Caribbean, of which largest volumes are Republic, El Salvador, and Guatemala at 15-25 million pounds each.

Renderers Association

(NRA)

to

in-

crease the use of tallow in milk-replacers

the effort will be directed mainly at pro-

toilet

totals.

Preliminary.

to

Dominican

being ac-

term future. In the search for

oil

moved

New

2

research

Includes edible tallow, inedible tallow, choice white grease, edible lard/oleo

and stearines, inedible lard/oleo oil and stearines, unrendered fats, and miscellaneous animal fats, oils, and greases. Total for edible tallow, inedible tallow, and choice white grease averages about 98 percent by volume and 95 percent by value of the seven-

being

are

and



a natural milk substitute that allows

early

weaning of animals.

Some

of

the

countries

countries.

opportunities

are also possible in Singapore and

some

other Southeast Asian countries, especurrently

viewed as the best prospective “new” markets are Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and a few other Mideast counNigeria, Ghana, South Africa, Kenya, the Sudan, Algeria, and Morocco in Africa; Venezuela, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and several Central tries;

American and Caribbean Significant new trade

moderate or Union and the People’s Republic of China opened somewhat their tallow and grease marcially

if

high import

are removed.

And

tariffs

the Soviet

kets to U.S. exports in recent years.

On-the-spot market surveys in most

new market counand a few older ones, are planned

of these prospective tries,

Paga 11

a

during the next several months.

soap dispersing agent (a class of cleans-

dustry has received complaints about

Egypt is the only older major market where U.S. exports are still holding up well, owing partly to U.S. Government financial assistance. However, medium-

ing agents dreived from tallow)

slow rate of biodegradation of the pho phate and petroleum-based detergen

and long-term potential for further growth on a commercial basis appear

high temperatures.

strong in this market.

USDA’s

In the older major markets in

Europe

and Asia, the U.S. industry is counting on a general economic recovery to help revive demand in 1976 and beyond.

some success

Also,

probable regard-

is

builder (inorganic

compound)

and a

make

to

the soap an effective and biodegradable

cleanser in hard water at either low or

developed

Regional

Eastern

(ERRC)

at

Research

Important research support was provided by the Fats and Protein Research FounCenter

Philadelphia.

at

NRA,

dation, as well as by

both of Des

Plaines, Illinois.

i

11

Jap;

announced the would begin commercial production an nese

was

concept

This

and incidents ol skin irritation. On September 30, 1975, two

tl

firms

jointly

1

marketing of tallow soap-based dete gent formulations, which had been d<

|l

from ERRC research results, pr< moted by NRA. According to press rs ports, the companies claim such benefi as elimination of pollution and skin irrl rived

jjj

So

ing modification or other resolution of

new

these

far,

tallow soap-based

the classification and certification prob-

detergents

lems.

resource substitutes for phosphates and

In the next year or so, however, general

economic recovery

will

probably not be sufficient to boost

markets

in these

show promise

petroleum-based

as

renewable-

They ap-

detergents.

pear to have good potential for gaining

powdered and

a considerable part of the

problems,

tation

increased

powers, and easier rinsing. keting

proves

effort

cleansin

If this

mai

successful

an

I

(

spreads to other areas, tallow soap-base



could provide a substanti;

detergents

tallow in the mediurr

outlet for U.S.

j

demand much. The

industry’s expected

market

liquid detergent

Japan, West-

in

needs are for regaining markets for a

ern Europe, and some other U.S. export

hundred million pounds per year in 1976 and 1977 exports. Other factors

markets. In an effort to put the

that

may

limit

recovery of exports to

these older major markets

are an ex-

research to practical use,

ERRC

FAS

and

sponsored

jointly

ERRC

and

NRA

arranged

scientists to travel to

for

Europe and

term future. Currently, few commercially prc duced detergents contain any talloi soap or tallow derivatives. And excep for the new development in Japan



are

formulated differently than



th

in

in

the Far East to present the results of

ERRC

West European production of tallow and grease and Japan’s apparent con-

their research to detergent industry lead-

current commercial detergents are petrc

pected continuation of the uptrend

siderable increase



in

temporarily

expected

1976, with

some

in-

coun-

competitor

in

such as Canada and Australia. But

reactions.

owing

(

|

icals.

Each

year, several billion

detergents,

household

pounds o

and

nonhouse:

research results are in foreign

oils,

in

the older major

prospective

in

Some

new

ones,

and

trad-

large Japanese

and

European buyers and processors of tallow and grease have invested heavily in palm oil production in Malaysia, West Africa, and other areas. The current palm oil glut can be traced back over a decade when increases in palm tree plantings accelerated substantially, especially in

formulations are replace;

by tallow-soap and tallow-derived chem

panies expressed the desire to undertake

will

to technical processing

ing patterns.

10 research and manufacturing

j;

expected to be more of a

oil,

competitive factor

markets than

uct

ERRC’s Animal Fat ProdLaboratory, described the new prodChief of

uct to

ERRC

in the

I

whiclj

probably offer

palm

oil is

L

leum derivatives and phosphates,

produced commercially in for eign U.S. markets, and U.S. production is about the same volume. However, th

a greater competition.

Palm

information and

in th

West Germany, the United Kingdom, Yugoslavia, Italy. Spain, and France. Most were high interested, said Maerker, and several com-

the increased supply of vegetable especially

to obtain their

ast April, Dr. Gerhard Maerker,

tallow and grease production

rise a little in

creases tries

at least

hog grease output.

World

may



and

ers

concept. Major ingredients

organizations

stress in

promotion of

animal feeds,

in-

cluding milk-replacers. Efforts will also

of

soap-based

detergents or laundry soap bars. will

consultation,

if

The new

has

detergent

May

1973 Dr. Maerker de-

|

Continued marketing success for

j

in

tallow utilization by the U.S

May

to study this process further.

and June of 1975, Dr. W. M.

ERRC,

Linfield, research leader at

eled

to

trav-

Japan, Korea, and Taiwan to

follow up by describing the most recent

developments

in this

ERRC

research to

\

export and domestic sectors, as well a in

major tallow end-use categories.

Ir j

time, this might also significantly affec

industry

ERRC

)

'

overall animal

ited

thi

tallow-soap detergent could bring sorrn

and end

firm that he contacted subsequently vis-

I

markets.

scribed the

new concept and product to leaders there. One Japanese

j

best opportunities for application of th

ERRC

shifts

needed.

soap-based

also sparked considerable interest in the

Far East. In

hold, are

ERRC

provide further technical help and

In

This year, U.S. export efforts in older

evaluations

exploratory

Southeast Asia.

major markets will tallow and greases

in

and vegetable

oil

j

dernant

I

uses.

Such prospects present a major cha! lenge, in both the near- and long-term

1

( 1

|

to the U.S. rendering industry.

Opportunities

are

also

reasonably

good for increasing nondetergent use the "new” and old export markets.

I

ii

i

I

I

these challenges can be at least substan |

be aimed

at

promoting new research de-

velopments regarding tallow nutrition,

as

well

as certain

in

animal

industrial

major soap and detergent industry representatives. In Japan particularly, all

says Linfield, the

and chemical uses, including a recent research development of a new concept

velopment,

for using tallow in soap-based detergent.

showed keen

This concept

is

fication of tallow

Page 12

essentially the

modi-

soap by adding a lime-

ERRC

detergent re-

search was received as a very timely de-

velop

it

and

several

interest

in

companies

trying to de-

met, the rendering industry’s prof!

itability

in-

should improve, which in

some measure of

allow

should strength

U.S.

for

raising retail

Some

livestock

meat prices

—while aiding ments.

commercially.

Reportedly, the Japanese detergent

tially

to

/

turi .

|

price

—withou

j

consumer j

the U.S. balance of pay

countries might also enjoj

ecological benefits.

Foreign Agricultun

i

\

Morocco’s Early Vegetable Trade Outlook Appears Static

port markets for early varieties.

1

tomato

early

FRANK J. PIASON

Assistant U.S. Agricultural Attache

Rome

M

orocco has long been one of

the

leading suppliers of early vegeta-

1973/74 shipments and

bles" to

export value 87 percent in 1974/75, to

since the early

volume drop. volume of exports of early varieties back in

Western Europe, but its overall exports of those products have remained in substantially the same volume range

The outlook

1950’s.

is

not encouraging for any improvement. Morocco apparently is in danger of

some of its trade advantages with European Community. Renegotia-

losing

the

tions of the

association agreement be-

EC

and the Maghreb coun(Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia) have

tween the tries

stalled

reportedly

dar on citrus.

the

as

tempted to place a

strict

EC

has

Greek, and

1964/65, when

erally not

EC

would not only

re-

quire radical reorganization of marketi

i

|

|

by the Moroccan Ministry of

ing efforts

Agriculture and by the Exporting and

(OCE), but also Marketing Office would diminish the preferential customs and tariff advantages that Moroccan farm exports to the EC have enjoyed until

now.

Morocco does not dar principal, but i

taining at least

vantages.

insisting

on main-

Morocco has

invested heavily

that are preferred

ties

by European con-

sumers, and are harvested at times

EC

the

products on also

when

does not have the EC-produced its

asserted

markets.

that

it

Morocco has

can provide

EC

consumers with strawberries, squash, and other vegetables at a low price.

The

Morocco’s early stretches back nearly two decades continued in 1974/ 75. Export sales last year totaled 231,000 metric tons, 2 percent less than inelasticity

vegetable

1

The

Attache

exports

author in

of

that

was Acting Agricultural article was

Rabat when the

written.

early varieties into

kets, primarily France, there stiff

about

were

150,000 at

the

shipments

early

potato

80,000 tons.

High production costs restrained the volume of sales of other vegetables in 1974/75 to about 2,000 tons, which is approximately the level at which they are expected to remain over the next few years.

The long-term outlook The possible loss of

bright.

is

not

very

trade advan-

EC and increased comfrom other developing coun-

tages with the petition tries,

in the Mediterranean improve Morocco’s com-

especially

area, will not

are gen-

EC is

mar-

already

Moroccan exporters ever, to reduce their

are hoping,

how-

heavy dependence

on sales to France by boosting shipments to West Germany, the United Kingdom, and Scandinavia.

On that

the domestic side, observers feel

increased

production

attention

and

to

marketing

improving techniques

could help Morocco to exploit better

its

strong potential as a vegetable exporter.

competition from local producers.

In the meantime, other Mediterran-

American pro-

ean, African, and Latin

ducing countries have been busy with variety development programs, and have boosted their own sales. Production and export costs that are

early

rising faster than profits are another fac-

Morocco’s static early vegetable Domestic producers estimate that the cost of raising potatoes has risen 60 percent in the past 3 years, and that of tor in trade.

tomatoes about 40 percent. Especially

the case of tomatoes,

in

growers have curtailed their production for export.

The

Morocco

in

who

growers,

early vegetable industry

involves about 8,000 minor

use 60,000-75,000 acres

of farmland, and about 150,000 workers

in

operations from production

to

marketing.

Morocco’s

relatively

markets

international

because of

failure

its

proved vegetable with those of

its

poor showing also

is

to

in

partially

develop im-

varieties to

keep up

competitors.

Another factor

is

the outdated pro-

duction and marketing techniques that are

being used for some produce

still

that once

had

a promising future.

In view of Morocco’s overall situa-

2 Morocco’s major early vegetables include tomatoes, potatoes, string beans, peas, asparagus, and artichokes.

March

Moroccan vegetables

Moroccan

at

— 1974/75 tons — and

petitive position.

ready to ship until May. By the time the OCE pours the bulk of

present level of ad-

producing vegetable and citrus varie-

in i

its

object to the calen-

is

shipped 286,000 tons

it

There are several reasons for the lack of improvement over the years. One is a matter of timing. Major European customers import 60-70 percent of their early vegetables between November and April, but

Israeli exports.

highest

its

to markets abroad.

Such an import calendar as the one proposed by the

million, despite the

Morocco reached

at-

Moroccan early vegetables and The EC wishes to protect Italian

also Spanish,

$116

import calen-

and French production primarily, and

;

5 percent below 1970-75 average. Inflation swelled

the

exports

It will

maintaining

175,000-ton level

shipments

By

on

concentrate

probably

1,

1976

tion, the

OCE

intends to pursue a policy

stressing preservation of

its

present ex-

Moroccan

farmgirl

shows

off

tomatoes

crated for export to Western Europe.

Page 13

j

inventory numbers through wool depre-

Spain Expects Larger Crops

]

ciation

likely to continue.

is

Increased poultry and egg production

Weather

1976,

In

may

Permitting

be attained to satisfy strong domes-

demand.

tic

Unless the pasture situation improves

oth

B

Spain’s agricultural production

and trade expected

are

in

to

most farm products moderately

increase

tion

maintain anticipated crop produc-

however,

levels,

will

down

outturns of most crops, espe-

southern half of the coun-

cially in the

import demand for agricultural products in 1976 will depend heavSpain’s

on the degree of reactivation of the economy and domestic farm

$338 million

and trade

1974.

Cotton: The good yields obtained

in

1975 and improved production practices expected to stimulate production moderately in 1976. In view of this as-

are

increase

and the

effect

of the

recession on cotton use, imports prob-

1976 than

ably will be smaller in

in

in

quirements, imports of leaf are likely to

1976 produckey commodities fol-

lows:

increase in 1976. Cigarette imports are

Grain and feed: Largely because of increase in support prices, wheat pro-

expected to gain marginally over 1975

duction

bulk smoking tobacco

is

expected to increase margin-

and small quantities of soft wheat and/or flour could be exported. Inally,

valued

resulting in

a

somewhat smaller

feed-

expected

is

ex-

quantities of hard wheat. Small

amounts

of soft wheat and/or flour could be exported. Imports of feedgrains will likely

1975 output

1975,

U.S.

grain

exports

(mostly

corn) to Spain were valued at $415 million,

compared with $280

million

in

1974.

increase

of higher

prices.

of

sugarbeets

this

ex-

Dairy, livestock, and poultry: Tenu-

may

play an im-

portant role in dairy and red meat out-

put during 1976.

The December

were

to

restore

drought-

If

rainfall

does not

rains

tinue decreasing. Because of this antici-

come

ample amounts over the next

pated lower level of output and higher domestic production costs, imports are

several months,

likely

to

increase

in

expected to con-

1976 over 1975

in

Oilseeds: Setbacks in oilseed produc-

If

a

outturns are expected to be lower

1976 than in 1975. Because of projected higher poultry and egg production, demand for protein meals is likely to experience a corresponding gain in 1976, and import dein

1975 because of steady domestic consumption and the possible continuation in

of the beef support prices that caused

farmers to increase their slaughter rate in 1975.

Higher hog prices should encourage increased production during 1976.

mand for soybeans and soybean meal is expected to exceed the 1975 level. In

have to originate

1975, U.S. exports of soybean cake to

casses,

Page 14

num-

meat can be expected to be same or slightly higher level than

at the

As

use of

conditions are satisfactory, produc-

are likely to discourage

result,

their

downward.

tion of red

planting an equally large acreage.

farmers will be

feedgrain or further adjust animal

tion in 1975, particularly in sunflowers,

farmers from

cattle

forced either to increase

bers

levels.

probably

increase in sheep

continue

1975

at

Economic problems are likely to reduce import demand for hides and

|

will

at

levels.

m

Imports of tallow are expected to

skins.

hold at about the 1975

level.

In 1975,

g

U.S. exports of tallow to Spain were at

$12

million,

)<

compared with

«

$15 million in 1974. According to Spanish customs data, imports of principal agricultural commodities from the United States totaled the equivalent of about $662 million in the first 9 months of 1975, a decline of about 2.5 percent from the corresponding period of 1974. Corn and soybeans accounted for about 84 percent of these

S

pain’s exports of farm commodities to the United States in the

of about $82 million,

T

n

(

u fo

k

|(

first

percent

Any

meat production will in heavier lamb car-

for the declining trend in total

down

from year-earlier

|,

g

(,

nearly 27

levels.

Most

tl

of these exports consisted of table olives,

canned

vermouth,

vegetables,

paprika, and olive

1975.

pastures.

is

milk

is

affected

Pulses: Production

sluggish during 1976. Imports of fresh

9 months of 1975 totaled the equivalent

panded domestic output, imports probably will be smaller in 1976 than in

insufficient

It

is

over

marginally

Because of

ous pasture conditions

m

j

levels.

Production

pi

imports.

1974.

projected to increase under the influence

be somewhat larger than those of 1975. In

in

to

Sugar:

Import demand for bread grains

Spain were

Fruits and vegetables: Production

grain harvest.

pected to be limited to relatively small

to

$16 million, compared with

at

$13 million

creased wheat area will be partly at the

expense of barley and corn acreage, thus

1975, U.S. exports of leaf and

levels. In

fc)

any increase in cow’s milk production will most likely be predicated on earlier weanings. Import demand for meat, meat products and poultry products is likely to be

valued

1975.

for Spain’s

output.

The outlook

in

Tobacco: Production is expected to remain at about the 1975 level. Because of expanded domestic processing re-

country’s

tion

1974. U.S. ex-

in

ports of soybeans to Spain in 1975 were

sumed

try.

ily

$19 million, com-

pared with $7 million

require sub-

prolonged drought

stantial rain. In 1975,

held

at

valued at $254 million, compared with

during 1976.

To

Spain were valued

in the spring,

wine,

oil.

Spanish imports of agricultural commodities from the European declined about 10 percent

months of 1975 from the

Community

in the first

9

level of the

corresponding period of 1974.

w

With the exception of almonds, sugar, and cheese, no major buildups or depletions of stocks occurred in Spain during

Almond

1975.

stocks at the beginning

1975/76 season (estimated at a record 21,500 metric tons, shelled basis) were more than four times the quantity on hand at the beginning of the 1974/75

of the

season.

Sugar stocks

at the

)i

ai

beginning of the

1975/76 season, exclusive of stocks in supply pipeline, were relatively the small 66,000 tons, compared with 91,000 tons on July 1, 1974.



Cheese stocks increased from 37,000 from 1974/75 to 1975/76. Based on report from Clarence L. Miller,

tons to 50,000 tons



U.S. Agricultural Attache,

Madrid

Foreign Agriculture

si,

Hi

Thrace. Total acreage of high-yield vari-

Turkey Harvests Large Wheat Crop Turkey’s 1971 wheat crop

total

mated



—favored now

is

esti-

11.5 million metric tons, 3.2

at

million tons greater than the year-earlier

harvest and

Turkey may export some wheat this year, which would be a dramatic turnabout from the country’s grain position in 1975, when slightly more than 1 million tons of wheat were imported.

The 1975

although

rice crop,

156,000

cantly

higher

1974’s

145,000 tons,

at

signifi-

considered to be a possibility.

The Government has purchased about 613.000 tons of barley, 90,000 tons of rye, 9,000 tons of oats, and 3,000 tons of

A

Government wheat purchases of

Corn purchases may reach

corn.

40.000 tons. large increase in barley production

the

during 1975 has encouraged the Gov-

1975 crop have reached about 2.4 mila record and an indication of

ernment to export some of it& stocks, and total barley exports may amount to about 100,000 tons during the current marketing year. About 25,000 tons of



Some

the large size of the crop.

have mentioned the

officials

of ex-

possibility

amount of wheat, but has been no official announcement

porting a small there

on the

rye are likely to be exported.

—Based on report from

Export of about 100,000 tons during the current marketing year

Office of U.S. Agricultural Attache,

subject.

Ankara

than

tons

insufficient

is

is

yield varieties.

lion tons

record crop.

a

is

wheat area is now sown to various types of improved seed, with some 2530 percent of the wheat area in highkey’s

by good weather, better seed, and improved farming methods

about 25-30 percent of Turkey’s wheat area. However, all of Tur-

eties is

to

cover domestic needs and imports during

1975/76

the

marketing

year

World Weather Watch

of

about 40,000 tons are forecast. In 1974,

Turkey bought about 60,000 tons of from the People’s Republic of rice

Of

Because of persistent dry weather, the U.S.

Great Plains continues

to

be

a major agricultural trouble spot. In

— mostly —

purchase, about 11,000

the

USSR

tons were imported during 1974 and the

ter

wheat areas

balance during 1975. 145,000 Production of chick

February caught some of the crop with little or no

China.

this

ing cold

peas and dry amounted to 160,000 tons and 140.000 tons, compared with

beans

1975

in

1974’s

harvests

of

respectively.

tons,

and

195,000 tons

Production

of lentils rose to 130,000 tons in 1975

from 1974’s 120,000-ton

The

level.

coastal regions of

Turkey were

not wheat-producing areas yield

Now

ago.

wheat areas

almost

new

these

all

in the coastal

regions (about

10 percent of the total wheat acreage) planted

are

to

mainly Mexican,

high-yield Italian,

varieties

wheat

and French.

sian)

varieties such as bezostaya

and some improved

Turkey and improved in Syria. Europe wintering crops received above normal precipitation and snow cover appeared adequate

local seeds are in

snow

cover. In general, though,

though

nificant moisture. Widespread storms and floods ravaged major crop areas of South Africa and Lesotho.

warmth

Unseasonable tinued

dryness

and

increased

con-

on

stress

Hard Red Winter wheat and other crops

much

in

of

the

Heavy

cover

in

USSR

the

protected winter

However, the

aging

and

processed

vegetables that formerly were available

the

in

Agricultural

(discontinued

new

1976) series of

now

FAS

FAS InUSDA, Room

send requests, in writing, to Services,

591 8-S, Washington, D.C. 20250.

1976

of

the

January

wheat

in

rains

inadequate

Snow depth

area.

spring wheat region.

January

FVEG-C. Those who wish to be included on the new mailing list, FVEG-C, should

1,

part

briefly

World

circulars,

\iyiarch

snow cover was

dam-

February and

early

in

Production and Trade

are available in a

formation

cold

creased considerably

monthly report

remained

rela-

western Europe, where

heaving from freezing and thawirg poses the biggest threat to crops.

Temperatures

moderated

from

early winter cold in the southern Peo-

Republic

ple’s

growth

of China, favoring and development of crops.

Winter wheat in the north was exposed to typical cool, dry midwinter weather and precipitation is needed. In the Southern Hemisphere, Feb-

region experienced potentially

fresh

in

Al-

snow

ruary rainfall reduced stress on crops

Vegetable Circulars in

mild

little

crops

relief to

data on world production of

and trade

temperatures

cover, tively

been

has

there

much of the U.S. southwest. Above average midwinter snow

brought considerable in

February

early

in

and

central

southeast portion of the winter wheat

FAS

In eastern

during spells of cold weather.

grains against the cold.

New

in

Winter rains have been sparse in Malaysia, India, and Sri Lanka; only a few isolated spots received any sig-

precipitation

(Rus-

used in the Anatolian Plateau and

have been excellent for winter wheat

damag-

southern U.S. Great Plains.

In addition to these, other high-yield

extended

cover has been above normal.

were introduced several

varieties

years

high-

until

snow

despite

region,

periods of dry weather. Conditions

the southeast win-

potentially

early

in

grains in most of the western Medi-

terranean

in

in

in-

most of the

benefited

parts of Pakistan.

winter India’s

northern wheat region, though, had only rain.

isolated

areas

Elsewhere

in

of

worthwhile

India, Sri

Lanka,

and Malaysia, the prolonged dry caused much concern for crops.

Adequate

winter

rains

spell

sustained

in

much

of northeast

Brazil.

Else-

where in Brazil, especially in the major agricultural areas of the south, a balance of rain and sunshine benefited crops. Generous January rains decline of Argentine crops and provided moisture to sustain surviving crops through relatively dry weather so far in February. arrested

Weeks of persistent heavy rains and flooding caused extensive damage to crops in South Africa, especially

corn and sorghum, and threat-

ens crops

in

Lesotho.

damaged soybeans and sunflowers and caused problems Similar weather

for cotton in Australia.

— By William

J.

Cremins,

FAS Page 15

U

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

S.

WASHINGTON D C 20250 POSTAGE AND FEES PAID US DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE AGR 101

PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE *300 OFFICIAL BUSINESS

First Class

Poultry Output Recouping

U.S. cents in 1974.

decline with an expected 3 percent in-

crease in

for poultry

1976 egg production is expected to rise about 3 percent to 30.3 billion eggs from 29.5 billion in 1975,

pork substitute, Japanese have boosted chick place-

duction adjustment program to freeze

and the United Kingdom close behind.

the flock size of producers with over

Combined, the three account for around 70 percent of EC broiler output.

Japan’s

Continued from page 7

demand

prices and stronger

meat

a

as

producers

ments since the summer of 1975. As a result, Japan’s total poultry meat production

is

forecast to rise about 5 per-

cent to 777,000 tons in 1976.

The dom-

inant broiler industry will account for

640,000 tons, also up about 5 percent. High Japanese prices for beef and pork sparked expanded consumption of chicken

last

year,

resulting

in

record-

High Japanese prices for beef and price for broiler meat in Tokyo on October 15, 1975, for instance, was the equivalent of about 53.8 U.S. cents per pound, compared with a high of 48.9

despite the

dampening

3,000 birds. Japan largest

effect of a pro-

the world’s fourth

is

egg producer after the United

States, the Soviet

Union, and the EC.

about 3 percent to 3.3 million tons 1976, with all EC countries recording

rise

in

some is

increase in output.

Egg production

forecast to decrease slightly to 63.3

billion eggs in response to in

and

United

the

the Neth-

Kingdom.

France, however, will offset some of this

meat

production

Country

1975

Eggs

change 1975

1976

three together account for about 90 per-

cent of the

Much meat

447 309

+

6.4

4-

5.5

4,825 321

5,200

+

7.8

Mexico .

.

France

380 108 132 102 88 816

Germany, West

281

Ireland

37 860 306 650 550

Brazil

Peru Venezuela

Belgium-Luxembourg

Denmark

Italy

Netherlands United Kingdom Spain

USSR

1,596 751 191

..

Japan Australia Total selected countries 1

Preliminary.

Page 16

-11.8

283 410 120 140 105 93 826 300 42 900 315 699 600

+ 2.9 + 5.7 + 1.2 + 6.8 + 13.5 + 4.7 + 2.9 + 7.5 + 9.1

1,400

-12.3

777 188

+ 7.9 + 11.1 + 6.1

+ -

3.5 1.6

Million

eggs

eggs

5,400 7,365 64,188 3,300 6,000 1,200 1,738 3,600 1,290 13,156 15,100

5,340 7,622 64,800 3,270 6,000 1,230 1,816 3,700 1,150 13,500 14,850

720

730

11,320 5,290 13,000 8,755 57,400 29,500 3,377

11,500 5,100 12,800 9,300 59,600 30,300 3,240

over

boasts

2

.

12,707

13,154

+

3.5

251,699

255,848

GOVERNMENT PRINTING

OFFICE: 1976

211-207/33

all

poultry

A

proportion of this

large

is

intra-

ports and 90 percent of exports origi-

Percent

+ + -

in

West Germany

of

+

About

of Italy, France, and that

1.0

dom

4.5 2.8

gets

imports

Denmark



uation

in the

is

true for

EC

1.5

3.8

sit-

The severe drought in Union last year altered the USSR poultry meat outlook for 1975 Soviet Union.

the Soviet

and 1976. Poultry slaughter

6.2

all

trade in eggs.

higher than

1-6

— and

EC. Much the same

is

1.7

3.6

from

half the trade

2.6 1.4

about 87

of Ireland and the United King-

.9

-10.9

+ + + + + + -

poultry

its

nations.

1.1

2.5

EC

or are destined for other

EC

other

trade.

3.5

0

+ + +

1-3

of

ports.

nate

Forecast.

*U.S.

on by the EC, which

two-third

product imports and 80 percent of ex-

in

1975 ran

and reduced total inventories resulting from heavy slaughter will probably have to remain for at least the first half of 1976. earlier

expected,

Actual Soviet poultry meat production

is

tentatively estimated at about the

2.7 4.1

1974

The .

out-

change 1976

Million

EC

of the world trade in poultry carried

is

percent Percent

420 293

Canada United States Argentina

1,000 metric tons

relatively small

still

put.

countries. 1,000 metric tons

the

Percent

2

Percent

also

About 90 percent of Dutch poultry meat exports goes to other EC countries. In Belgium-Luxembourg, 96 percent of poultry meat im-

Total poultry

are

third,

turkey meat producers. The

Community

TOTAL POULTRY MEAT AND EGG PRODUCTION FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES, 1975 AND 1976 1

close

a

EC

largest

lower output

Denmark, West Germany,

erlands,

and France, with the United

Italy

Kingdom

European Community. Total EC poultry meat production is expected to

egg production.

its

About two-thirds of EC poultry meat is from broilers. France is the leading broiler producer in the EC, with Italy

1-6

level

and 12 percent under 1975’s.

Soviets simply will not be able to

expand their poultry production some new-crop grain is available.

until

Foreign Agriculture

1976
Agriculture Economic aspects Periodicals, Produce trade Periodicals
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